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      A multimillennial climatic context for the megafaunal extinctions in Madagascar and Mascarene Islands

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          Abstract

          Human activities within the context of a drying trend triggered the megafaunal extinctions in Madagascar and Mascarene Islands.

          Abstract

          Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands of Mauritius and Rodrigues underwent catastrophic ecological and landscape transformations, which virtually eliminated their entire endemic vertebrate megafauna during the past millennium. These ecosystem changes have been alternately attributed to either human activities, climate change, or both, but parsing their relative importance, particularly in the case of Madagascar, has proven difficult. Here, we present a multimillennial (approximately the past 8000 years) reconstruction of the southwest Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability using speleothems from the island of Rodrigues, located ∼1600 km east of Madagascar. The record shows a recurring pattern of hydroclimate variability characterized by submillennial-scale drying trends, which were punctuated by decadal-to-multidecadal megadroughts, including during the late Holocene. Our data imply that the megafauna of the Mascarenes and Madagascar were resilient, enduring repeated past episodes of severe climate stress, but collapsed when a major increase in human activity occurred in the context of a prominent drying trend.

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          Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities.

          Conservationists are far from able to assist all species under threat, if only for lack of funding. This places a premium on priorities: how can we support the most species at the least cost? One way is to identify 'biodiversity hotspots' where exceptional concentrations of endemic species are undergoing exceptional loss of habitat. As many as 44% of all species of vascular plants and 35% of all species in four vertebrate groups are confined to 25 hotspots comprising only 1.4% of the land surface of the Earth. This opens the way for a 'silver bullet' strategy on the part of conservation planners, focusing on these hotspots in proportion to their share of the world's species at risk.
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            Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates

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              Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

              Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                SciAdv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                October 2020
                16 October 2020
                : 6
                : 42
                : eabb2459
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China.
                [2 ]Department of Earth Science, California State University, Dominguez Hills, Carson, CA, USA.
                [3 ]François Leguat Giant Tortoise and Cave Reserve, Anse Quitor, Rodrigues Island, Mauritius.
                [4 ]Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
                [5 ]Max Planck Institute of Chemistry, Hahn-Meitnerweg 1, Mainz, Germany.
                [6 ]Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
                [7 ]National Cave Research and Protection Organization, Raipur, India.
                [8 ]Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
                [9 ]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
                [10 ]Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
                Author notes
                [*]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                []Corresponding author. Email: asinha@ 123456csudh.edu (A.S.); cheng021@ 123456xjtu.edu.cn (H.C.)
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7915-9828
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5700-2451
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7167-4940
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0897-8244
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9333-9385
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8464-9020
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7027-5881
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5305-9458
                Article
                abb2459
                10.1126/sciadv.abb2459
                7567594
                33067226
                a323c611-c102-4b33-a1ab-4012812b375d
                Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 10 February 2020
                : 12 August 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: 1702816
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;
                Award ID: 41888101
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;
                Award ID: 41731174
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;
                Award ID: 41561144003
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;
                Award ID: 41472140
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809, National Natural Science Foundation of China;
                Award ID: 41703007
                Funded by: doi http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002367, Chinese Academy of Sciences;
                Award ID: 2020VCA0019
                Funded by: State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology;
                Award ID: SKLLQG1414
                Categories
                Research Article
                Research Articles
                SciAdv r-articles
                Climatology
                Ecology
                Climatology
                Custom metadata
                Adrienne Del Mundo

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