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      Assessment of 10-year risk for ischemic cardiovascular disease for adults aged 35 – 59 years in Shanghai city


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          Objective To analyze risk factors of ischemic cardiovascular disease (ICVD) among 35 – 59 years old residents in Shanghai in 2013 and to assess the risk of ICVD during next 10 years for the residents.

          Methods We extracted the data on 9 310 urban and rural residents aged 35 – 59 years from Surveillance on Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors in Shanghai City conducted in 2013. We adopted the method and tools for ICVD risk assessment developed by the National Collaborative Research Group for Evaluation and Intervention on Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Integrated Risk. For all the residents, the individual absolute risk of 10-year ICVD incidence was calculated based on the total score for all the risk factors of the individual and then the10-year ICVD risk of the individual was graded into high, moderate, and low category according to the calculated absolute risk (≥ 10%, ≥ 5% and < 10%, and < 5%).

          Results The estimated absolute 10-year risk of ICVD incidence was 3.19% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.11% – 3.27%) for all the participants; the risk for the male participants (4.16%, 95% CI: 4.00% – 4.32%) was higher than that for the female (2.58%, 95% CI: 2.50% – 2.67%); the risk increased with the increment of age and differed by living region (urban, rural-urban, and rural region) of the participants. The proportion of the participants with high, moderate, and low estimated 10-year risk of ICVD incidence were 5.38%, 13.35%, and 81.27%, respectively; the proportion was significantly different between the male and female participants and among the participants of various ages and living in different regions. The proportion of participants with high ICVD incidence risk increased with the increment of the participants′ age.

          Conclusion The study estimated higher overall, sex-, and age-group specific 10-year risk of ICVD incidence among the 35 – 59 years old residents in Shanghai city than the domestic reference levels estimated by the the National Collaborative Research Group and 5.38% of the residents were assessed with a high risk of 10-year ICVD incidence, suggesting that comprehensive intervention on risk factors of ICVD should be promoted in the population.


          【摘 要】 目的 了解 2013 年上海市 35~59 岁人群缺血性心血管病(ICVD)相关危险因素,并对其 10 年发病风险进行评估。 方法 使用 2013 年上海市慢性病及其危险监测数据进行分析,选取 35~59 岁人群作为研究对象。运用 “国人 ICVD10 年发病危险度评估方法”根据各危险因素的得分之和求得个体 10 年 ICVD 发病的绝对危险度;并根据绝对危险度对发病危险进行分级。 结果 上海市 35~59 岁人群缺血性心血管事件 10 年发病绝对危险度为 3.19 %(95 % CI = 3.11 %~3.27 %),其中男性 (4.16 %,95 % CI = 4.00 %~4.32 %) 高于女性 (2.58 %,95 % CI = 2.50 %~2.67 %);发病绝对危险度随着年龄增加而上升,城市地区、城乡结合部、农村地区发病绝对危险度不同。35~59 岁人群中ICVD10 年发病风险高危者、中危者、低危者分别占 5.38 %、13.35 %、81.27 %。不同性别、不同年龄间危险分级分布不同;无论对于男性还是女性,随着年龄增长发病风险高危者比例逐渐升高。不同地区间 ICVD10 年发病危险分级分布不同。 结论 上海市 35~59 岁人群中不同性别、不同年龄段平均危险度均高于评估方法的参考标准, ICVD10 年发病风险高危者占 5.38 %,应采取综合措施预防心血管疾病的发生。

          Author and article information

          Chinese Journal of Public Health
          Chinese Journal of Public Health (China )
          01 September 2019
          11 March 2019
          : 35
          : 9
          : 1183-1186
          [1] 1Division of Non-Communicable Chronic Disease and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
          Author notes
          *Corresponding author: Wang Yuheng, E-mail: wangyuheng@ 123456scdc.sh.cn
          © 2019 China Public Health Editorial Department

          This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported License (CC BY-NC 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

          Journal Article

          Medicine,Nutrition & Dietetics,Occupational & Environmental medicine,Health & Social care,Infectious disease & Microbiology,Public health
          epidemiology,ischemic cardiovascular disease,risk assessment,risk factor


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