Monitoring the status of selected health related sustainable development goals: methods and projections to 2030

There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

ABSTRACT

Background: Monitoring Sustainable Development Goal indicators (SDGs) and their targets plays an important role in understanding and advocating for improved health outcomes for all countries. We present the United Nations (UN) Inter-agency groups’ efforts to support countries to report on SDG health indicators, project progress towards 2030 targets and build country accountability for action.

Objective: We highlight common principles and practices of each Inter-agency group and the progress made towards SDG 3 targets using seven health indicators as examples. The indicators used provide examples of best practice for modelling estimates and projections using standard methods, transparent data collection and country consultations.

Methods: Practices common to the UN agencies include multi-UN agency participation, expert groups to advise on estimation methods, transparent publication of methods and data inputs, use of UN-derived population estimates, country consultations, and a common reporting platform to present results. Our seven examples illustrate how estimates, using mostly Bayesian models, make use of country data to track progress towards SDG targets for 2030.

Results: Progress has been made over the past decade. However, none of the seven indicators are on track to achieve their respective SDG targets by 2030. Accelerated efforts are needed, especially in low- and middle-income countries, to reduce the burden of maternal, child, communicable and noncommunicable disease mortality, and to provide access to modern methods of family planning to all women.

Conclusion: Our analysis shows the benefit of UN interagency monitoring which prioritizes transparent country data sources, UN population estimates and life tables, and rigorous but replicable modelling methods. Countries are supported to build capacity for data collection, analysis and reporting. Through these monitoring efforts we support countries to tackle even the most intransient health issues, including the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 that is reversing the hard-earned gains of all countries.

Related collections

Most cited references 30

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Timothy Roberton, Emily Carter, Victoria Chou … (2020)

Summary Background While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. Methods We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Findings Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18–23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. Interpretation Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

0 comments Cited 632 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: not found

NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

James Bennett, Gretchen Stevens, Colin D Mathers … (2018)

The third UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) on Sept 27, 2018, will review national and global progress towards the prevention and control of NCDs, and provide an opportunity to renew, reinforce, and enhance commitments to reduce their burden. NCD Countdown 2030 is an independent collaboration to inform policies that aim to reduce the worldwide burden of NCDs, and to ensure accountability towards this aim. In 2016, an estimated 40·5 million (71%) of the 56·9 million worldwide deaths were from NCDs. Of these, an estimated 1·7 million (4% of NCD deaths) occurred in people younger than 30 years of age, 15·2 million (38%) in people aged between 30 years and 70 years, and 23·6 million (58%) in people aged 70 years and older. An estimated 32·2 million NCD deaths (80%) were due to cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes, and another 8·3 million (20%) were from other NCDs. Women in 164 (88%) and men in 165 (89%) of 186 countries and territories had a higher probability of dying before 70 years of age from an NCD than from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions combined. Globally, the lowest risks of NCD mortality in 2016 were seen in high-income countries in Asia-Pacific, western Europe, and Australasia, and in Canada. The highest risks of dying from NCDs were observed in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, and, for men, in central Asia and eastern Europe. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4-a one-third reduction, relative to 2015 levels, in the probability of dying between 30 years and 70 years of age from cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by 2030-will be achieved in 35 countries (19%) for women, and 30 (16%) for men, if these countries maintain or surpass their 2010-2016 rate of decline in NCD mortality. Most of these are high-income countries with already-low NCD mortality, and countries in central and eastern Europe. An additional 50 (27%) countries for women and 35 (19%) for men are projected to achieve such a reduction in the subsequent decade, and thus, with slight acceleration of decline, could meet the 2030 target. 86 (46%) countries for women and 97 (52%) for men need implementation of policies that substantially increase the rates of decline. Mortality from the four NCDs included in SDG target 3.4 has stagnated or increased since 2010 among women in 15 (8%) countries and men in 24 (13%) countries. NCDs and age groups other than those included in the SDG target 3.4 are responsible for a higher risk of death in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Substantial reduction of NCD mortality requires policies that considerably reduce tobacco and alcohol use and blood pressure, and equitable access to efficacious and high-quality preventive and curative care for acute and chronic NCDs.

0 comments Cited 365 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

Record: found
Abstract: found
Article: found

Is Open Access

National, regional, and global levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015 with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

Leontine Alkema, Doris Chou, Daniel W Hogan … (2015)

Summary Background Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a reduction of 75% in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed scenario-based projections to highlight the accelerations needed to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) global target of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births globally by 2030. Methods We updated the open access UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-agency Group (MMEIG) database. Based upon nationally-representative data for 171 countries, we generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with uncertainty intervals using a Bayesian model, which extends and refines the previous UN MMEIG estimation approach. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources. Results The global MMR declined from 385 deaths per 100,000 live births (80% uncertainty interval ranges from 359 to 427) in 1990 to 216 (207 to 249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43.9% (34.0 to 48.7) during the 25-year period, with 303,000 (291,000 to 349,000) maternal deaths globally in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1.8% (0 to 3.1) in the Caribbean to 5.0% (4.0 to 6.0) for Eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 range from 12 (11 to 14) for developed regions to 546 (511 to 652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7.5%. Interpretation Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is required to begin making progress towards the ambitious SDG 2030 target, and ultimately eliminating preventable maternal mortality. While the rates of reduction that are required to achieve country-specific SDG targets are ambitious for the great majority of high mortality countries, the experience and rates of change between 2000 and 2010 in selected countries–those with concerted efforts to reduce the MMR- provide inspiration as well as guidance on how to accomplish the acceleration necessary to substantially reduce preventable maternal deaths. Funding Funding from grant R-155-000-146-112 from the National University of Singapore supported the research by LA and SZ. AG is the recipient of a National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, grant # T32-HD007275. Funding also provided by USAID and HRP (the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction).

0 comments Cited 359 times – based on 0 reviews      Review now

Bookmark

All references

Author and article information

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): Glob Health Action

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Glob Health Action

Title: Global Health Action

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISSN (Print): 1654-9716

ISSN (Electronic): 1654-9880

Publication date (Electronic, pub): 30 November 2020

Publication date (Electronic, collection): 2020

Volume: 13

Issue: 1

Electronic Location Identifier: 1846903

Affiliations

[a ]Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, WHO; , Geneva, Switzerland

[b ]Global Malaria Programme, WHO; , Geneva, Switzerland

[c ]Department of Health Financing, WHO; , Geneva, Switzerland

[d ]Strategic Information Department, UNAIDS; , Geneva, Switzerland

[e ]Stop TB Department, WHO; , New York, NY, USA

[f ]Division of Data, Analytics, Planning and Monitoring, UNICEF; , New York, NY, USA

[g ]UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division; , New York, NY, USA

[h ]UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP), Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, WHO; , Geneva, Switzerland

[i ]Noncommunicable Diseases Department, WHO; , Geneva, Switzerland

Author notes

CONTACT Kathleen Strong strongk@ 123456who.int Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Aging, World Health Organization, Avenue Appia; ,, Geneva1201, Switzerland

Author information

Kathleen Strong https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-1955

Abdislan Noor https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2242-4499

John Aponte https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3014-3673

Anshu Banerjee https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6487-8793

Theresa Diaz https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5063-8078

Philippe Glaziou https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0649-1272

Lucia Hug https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3230-4909

Vladimira Kantorova https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2960-5930

Mary Mahy https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6023-3023

Ann-Beth Moller https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3581-0938

Jennifer Requejo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0351-7465

Leanne Riley https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0615-9752

Lale Say https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1377-1328

Danzhen You https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0456-8472

Article

Publisher ID: 1846903

DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2020.1846903

PMC ID: 7717122

PubMed ID: 33250013

SO-VID: a3e878d5-0569-4e45-972c-0deb8cf4ee19

License:

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Monitoring the status of selected health related sustainable development goals: methods and projections to 2030

Read this article at

ABSTRACT

Related collections

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Most cited references 30

Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

NCD Countdown 2030: worldwide trends in non-communicable disease mortality and progress towards Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4

National, regional, and global levels and trends in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015 with scenario-based projections to 2030: a systematic analysis by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group

Author and article information

Journal

Affiliations

Author notes

Author information

Article

History

Page count

Categories

Comments

Comment on this article

Similar content 179

Cited by 4

Most referenced authors 1,441