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      Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

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          Abstract

          Temperature variability will increase in poor countries and decrease in rich countries, creating a new climate injustice.

          Abstract

          Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C −1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

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          An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

          The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
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            Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

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              Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                SciAdv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                May 2018
                02 May 2018
                : 4
                : 5
                : eaar5809
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
                [2 ]Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution, UMR 5554, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, CC 065, Place Eugéne Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France.
                [3 ]Earth System Science Group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK.
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. Email: sebastian.bathiany@ 123456wur.nl
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9904-1619
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6725-7498
                Article
                aar5809
                10.1126/sciadv.aar5809
                5931768
                29732409
                a40f9c2d-7763-4185-8e24-e928a1754d39
                Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 24 November 2017
                : 16 March 2018
                Funding
                Funded by: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO);
                Award ID: Zwaartekracht project NESSC
                Categories
                Research Article
                Research Articles
                SciAdv r-articles
                Climatology
                Climatology
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