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      Measuring the prevalence of 60 health conditions in older Australians in residential aged care with electronic health records: a retrospective dynamic cohort study

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          Abstract

          Background

          The number of older Australians using aged care services is increasing, yet there is an absence of reliable data on their health. Multimorbidity in this population has not been well described. A clear picture of the health status of people using aged care is essential for informing health practice and policy to support evidence-based, equitable, high-quality care. Our objective was to describe the health status of older Australians living in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) and develop a model for monitoring health conditions using data from electronic health record systems.

          Methods

          Using a dynamic retrospective cohort of 9436 RACF residents living in 68 RACFs in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory from 2014 to 2017, we developed an algorithm to identify residents’ conditions using aged care funding assessments, medications administered, and clinical notes from their facility electronic health record (EHR). We generated age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates for 60 health conditions. Agreement between conditions recorded in aged care funding assessments and those documented in residents’ EHRs was evaluated using Cohen’s kappa. Cluster analysis was used to describe combinations of health conditions (multimorbidity) occurring among residents.

          Results

          Using all data sources, 93% of residents had some form of circulatory disease, with hypertension the most common (62%). Most residents (93%) had a mental or behavioural disorder, including dementia (58%) or depression (54%). For most conditions, EHR data identified approximately twice the number of people with the condition compared to aged care funding assessments. Agreement between data sources was highest for multiple sclerosis, Huntington’s disease, and dementia. The cluster analysis identified seven groups with distinct combinations of health conditions and demographic characteristics and found that the most complex cluster represented a group of residents that had on average the longest lengths of stay in residential care.

          Conclusions

          The prevalence of many health conditions among RACF residents in Australia is underestimated in previous reports. Aged care EHR data have the potential to be used to better understand the complex health needs of this vulnerable population and can help fill the information gaps needed for population health surveillance and quality monitoring.

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          Most cited references9

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          Multimorbidity--older adults need health care that can count past one.

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            Estimating the prevalence of dementia using multiple linked administrative health records and capture–recapture methodology

            Background Obtaining population-level estimates of the incidence and prevalence of dementia is challenging due to under-diagnosis and under-reporting. We investigated the feasibility of using multiple linked datasets and capture–recapture techniques to estimate rates of dementia among women in Australia. Methods This work is based on the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. A random sample of 12,432 women born in 1921–1926 was recruited in 1996. Over 16 years of follow-up records of dementia were obtained from five sources: three-yearly self-reported surveys; clinical assessments for aged care assistance; death certificates; pharmaceutical prescriptions filled; and, in three Australian States only, hospital in-patient records. Results A total of 2534 women had a record of dementia in at least one of the data sources. The aged care assessments included dementia records for 79.3% of these women, while pharmaceutical data included 34.6%, death certificates 31.0% and survey data 18.5%. In the States where hospital data were available this source included dementia records for 55.8% of the women. Using capture–recapture methods we estimated an additional 728 women with dementia had not been identified, increasing the 16 year prevalence for the cohort from 20.4 to 26.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.2, 26.8%). Conclusions This study demonstrates that using routinely collected health data with record linkage and capture–recapture can produce plausible estimates for dementia prevalence and incidence at a population level. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12982-017-0057-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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              Latent Class Analysis Variable Selection.

              We propose a method for selecting variables in latent class analysis, which is the most common model-based clustering method for discrete data. The method assesses a variable's usefulness for clustering by comparing two models, given the clustering variables already selected. In one model the variable contributes information about cluster allocation beyond that contained in the already selected variables, and in the other model it does not. A headlong search algorithm is used to explore the model space and select clustering variables. In simulated datasets we found that the method selected the correct clustering variables, and also led to improvements in classification performance and in accuracy of the choice of the number of classes. In two real datasets, our method discovered the same group structure with fewer variables. In a dataset from the International HapMap Project consisting of 639 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 210 members of different groups, our method discovered the same group structure with a much smaller number of SNPs.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                klind@arizona.edu
                Journal
                Popul Health Metr
                Popul Health Metr
                Population Health Metrics
                BioMed Central (London )
                1478-7954
                8 October 2020
                8 October 2020
                2020
                : 18
                : 25
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.134563.6, ISNI 0000 0001 2168 186X, Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, , University of Arizona, ; 3950 S. Country Club Rd., Suite 330, Tucson, AZ 85714 USA
                [2 ]GRID grid.1004.5, ISNI 0000 0001 2158 5405, Centre for Health Systems and Safety Research, Australian Institute of Health Innovation, , Macquarie University, ; Level 6, 75 Talavera Road, Sydney, NSW 2109 Australia
                [3 ]GRID grid.1004.5, ISNI 0000 0001 2158 5405, Department of Health Professions, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, , Macquarie University, ; Ground Floor, 75 Talavera Road, Sydney, NSW 2109 Australia
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8850-1576
                Article
                234
                10.1186/s12963-020-00234-z
                7545887
                33032628
                a4863687-96bb-4259-a63b-d82a7394e05d
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

                History
                : 14 January 2020
                : 28 September 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: Australian Research Council
                Award ID: LP120200814
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: National Health and Medical Research Council
                Award ID: APP1143941
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Research
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Health & Social care
                health status,multimorbidity,multiple chronic conditions,aged care,long-term care,nursing homes,electronic health record

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