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      Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Kazakhstan

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          Abstract

          Using the Global IMPACT model, we investigate the probable effect of climate change on the performance of agriculture and socio-economic conditions in Kazakhstan under five climate-change scenarios. These include a baseline and four climate-change scenarios (MIROC, Hadgem, GFDL, and IPSL) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). More specifically, we focus on climate-change impact on the production of wheat, potatoes, cotton, maize, rice, and barley. The results suggest that increased temperatures and precipitation will hurt spring crop yields such as wheat and barley. Climate change will probably positively impact the yields of winter varieties of wheat and barley and enable farmers to practise multiple cropping during a farming season. Rice yield is also expected to increase due to climate change, but the yield of potatoes is projected to be adversely affected. Therefore, climate change will be one of the critical challenges for improving agricultural productivity, household welfare, and ensuring food and nutrition security in Kazakhstan.

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          Most cited references 15

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          Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.

          Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.
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            Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

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              Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                2631-682X
                Silk Road: A Journal of Eurasian Development
                University of Westminster Press
                2631-682X
                04 December 2020
                2020
                : 2
                : 1
                : 66-88
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Kazakh-British Technical University, Almaty, KZ
                [2 ]Satbayev University, Almaty, KZ
                [3 ]International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, US
                Article
                10.16997/srjed.19
                Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s)

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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