Rates of evolution

Abstract

For some higher taxa, species can be identified in the fossil record with a high degree of reliability. The great geological durations of species indicate that phyletic evolution is normally so slow that little change occurs within a lineage during 10 ⁵–10 ⁷ generations. Failure to recognize sibling species in the fossil record has no bearing on this conclusion because they embody virtually no morphological change. Although slowness is the rule, we have no more precise assessment of morphological rates of phyletic evolution for any major taxon. Morphological data that have been assembled to assess rates of phyletic evolution have been meager, unrepresentative, and predominantly reflective of nothing more than body size. Net selection pressures within long segments of phylogeny—even ones that embrace large amounts of evolution—are infinitesimal and seemingly unsustainable against random fluctuations. This suggests that natural selection operates in a highly episodic fashion.

Rates of adaptive radiation and extinction at the species level can be estimated for many taxa and, from them, rates of speciation in adaptive radiation. Species selection should universally tend to increase rate of speciation and decrease rate of extinction, yet these rates are positively correlated in the animal world, apparently because they are linked by common controls: both rate of speciation and rate of extinction seem to increase with level of stereotypical behavior and to decrease with dispersal ability. Only a few “supertaxa” have been able to combine high rates of speciation with moderate rates of extinction.