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      Verification of Space Weather Forecasts issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

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          Abstract

          The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre was founded in 2014 and part of its remit is a daily Space Weather Technical Forecast to help the UK build resilience to space weather impacts; guidance includes four day geo-magnetic storm forecasts (GMSF) and X-ray flare forecasts (XRFF). It is crucial for forecasters, users, modelers and stakeholders to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these forecasts; therefore, it is important to verify against the most reliable truth data source available. The present study contains verification results for XRFFs using GOES-15 satellite data and GMSF using planetary K-index (Kp) values from the GFZ Helmholtz Centre. To assess the value of the verification results it is helpful to compare them against a reference forecast and the frequency of occurrence during a rolling prediction period is used for this purpose. Analysis of the rolling 12-month performance over a 19-month period suggests that both the XRFF and GMSF struggle to provide a better prediction than the reference. However, a relative operating characteristic and reliability analysis of the full 19-month period reveals that although the GMSF and XRFF possess discriminatory skill, events tend to be over-forecast.

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                06 April 2018
                Article
                10.1002/2017SW001683
                1804.02985
                a549dcb3-67b2-4a96-b94a-76c56f2bdf70

                http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

                History
                Custom metadata
                Space Weather, 15, 1383-1395 (2017)
                Published in Space Weather. 21 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables
                physics.space-ph physics.ao-ph

                Atmospheric, Oceanic and Environmental physics,Space Physics
                Atmospheric, Oceanic and Environmental physics, Space Physics

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