31 January 2020
The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) has published three classifications of COPD from 2007 to 2017. No studies have investigated the ability of these classifications to predict COPD-related hospitalizations. We aimed to compare the discrimination ability of the GOLD 2007, 2011, and 2017 classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality.
We followed 1300 participants with COPD aged ≥40 years who participated in the HUNT Study (1995–1997) through to December 31, 2015. Survival analysis and time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC) were used to compare the discrimination abilities of the GOLD classifications.
Of the 1300 participants, 522 were hospitalized due to COPD and 896 died over 20.4 years of follow-up. In adjusted models, worsening GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, or GOLD 2017 categories were associated with higher hazards for COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality, except for the GOLD 2017 classification and all-cause mortality (p trend=0.114). In crude models, the AUCs (95% CI) for the GOLD 2007, GOLD 2011, and GOLD 2017 for COPD hospitalization were 63.1 (58.7–66.9), 60.9 (56.1–64.4), and 56.1 (54.0–58.1), respectively, at 20-years’ follow-up. Corresponding estimates for all-cause mortality were 57.0 (54.8–59.1), 54.1 (52.1–56.0), and 52.6 (51.0–54.3). The differences in AUCs between the GOLD classifications to predict COPD hospitalization and all-cause mortality were constant over the follow-up time.