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      A spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of temperature on COVID-19 early evolution in Spain

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          The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease, was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This new pathogen has spread rapidly around more than 200 countries, in which Spain has one of the world's highest mortality rates so far. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that weather conditions may affect the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases. However, some contradictory studies have also been reported in the same research line. In addition, many of these studies have been performed considering only meteorological factors, which can limit the reliability of the results. Herein, we report a spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) on the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the provinces of Spain. Non-meteorological factors such as population density, population by age, number of travellers and number of companies have also been considered for the analysis. No evidence suggesting a reduction in COVID-19 cases at warmer mean, minimum and maximum temperatures has been found. Nevertheless, these results need to be interpreted cautiously given the existing uncertainty about COVID-19 data, and should not be extrapolated to temperature ranges other than those analysed here for the early evolution period.

          Graphical abstract


          • No evidence of a relationship between COVID-19 cases and temperature was found.

          • Results should not be extrapolated to other temperature ranges.

          • These results should be interpreted carefully due to data uncertainty and confounders.

          • It is important to account for non-meteorological, spatial and temporal effects.

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          Most cited references 6

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            Real-time automatic interpolation of ambient gamma dose rates from the Dutch radioactivity monitoring network

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              Spatial prediction and ordinary kriging

               Noel Cressie (1988)

                Author and article information

                Sci Total Environ
                Sci. Total Environ
                The Science of the Total Environment
                Elsevier B.V.
                22 April 2020
                1 August 2020
                22 April 2020
                : 728
                : 138811
                [a ]Statistics Office, City Council of València, Spain
                [b ]Centro de Investigación Traslacional San Alberto Magno, Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir, Spain
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Á. Briz-Redón, Carrer de l'Arquebisbe Mayoral, 2, 46002, Valencia, Spain. alvaro.briz@ 123456uv.es
                [** ]Correspondence to: Á. Serrano-Aroca, C/Guillem de Castro, 94, 46001, Valencia, Spain. angel.serrano@ 123456ucv.es
                S0048-9697(20)32328-7 138811
                © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.



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