Ofsted school quality ratings are a poor predictor of students’ achievement and wellbeing

Abstract

Background: In the UK, all state-funded schools are inspected by an independent government agency, the Office for Standards in Education (Ofsted). Inspections aim to hold schools accountable and to promote the improvement of education, with the results made available to the public. Ofsted reports intend to index school quality but their influence on students’ individual outcomes has not been previously studied. The aim of the current study was to explore the extent to which school quality, as indexed by Ofsted ratings, is associated with students’ educational achievement, wellbeing, and school engagement. Methods: We use a UK population-based sample of 4,391 individuals, for whom school performance at age 11 and GCSE grades at age 16 were accessed from the National Pupil Database, and who completed measures of wellbeing and school engagement at age 16. Results: We found that Ofsted ratings of secondary school quality accounted for 4% of the variance in students' educational achievement at age 16, which was further reduced to 1% of the variance after we accounted for prior school performance at age 11 and family socioeconomic status. Furthermore, Ofsted ratings were poor predictors of school engagement and student wellbeing, with an average correlation of .03. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that differences in school quality, as indexed by Ofsted ratings, have little relation with students’ individual outcomes. Accordingly, our results call into question the usefulness of Ofsted ratings for parents and students when choosing secondary schools.