Changing Horses in Midstream: Sudden Changes in Plan in Dynamic Decision-making Problems

Motivation – Why and how do expert unexpectedly change from their original plan in dynamic, uncertain settings? Research approach – Critical event interviews of practitioners self-reporting cases of sudden plan changes. Findings – Sudden plan changes developed in much the same manner as an expert’s initial plan in recognition-primed decision-making. Limitations – Cases were limited to the healthcare domain; self-reporting distorts some aspects of the events; only cases where the change in plan worked were volunteered. Originality/Value – Many studies have examined persistence in an erroneous plan; fewer have examined sudden switches from bad to good plans. Take away message – Sudden plan changes arise in ways similar to experts’ initial plan formulations: appearing as if unbidden, often not preceded by growing awareness of the need for reassessment, and once present seem obviously correct.