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      A tutorial on Bayes Factor Design Analysis using an informed prior

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          Abstract

          Well-designed experiments are likely to yield compelling evidence with efficient sample sizes. Bayes Factor Design Analysis (BFDA) is a recently developed methodology that allows researchers to balance the informativeness and efficiency of their experiment (Schönbrodt & Wagenmakers, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(1), 128–142 2018). With BFDA, researchers can control the rate of misleading evidence but, in addition, they can plan for a target strength of evidence. BFDA can be applied to fixed-N and sequential designs. In this tutorial paper, we provide an introduction to BFDA and analyze how the use of informed prior distributions affects the results of the BFDA. We also present a user-friendly web-based BFDA application that allows researchers to conduct BFDAs with ease. Two practical examples highlight how researchers can use a BFDA to plan for informative and efficient research designs.

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          Most cited references30

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          Strong Inference: Certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others.

          J R Platt (1964)
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            Bayesian estimation supersedes the t test.

            Bayesian estimation for 2 groups provides complete distributions of credible values for the effect size, group means and their difference, standard deviations and their difference, and the normality of the data. The method handles outliers. The decision rule can accept the null value (unlike traditional t tests) when certainty in the estimate is high (unlike Bayesian model comparison using Bayes factors). The method also yields precise estimates of statistical power for various research goals. The software and programs are free and run on Macintosh, Windows, and Linux platforms. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.
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              The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

              In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                angelika.stefan@gmx.de
                ej.wagenmakers@gmail.com
                Journal
                Behav Res Methods
                Behav Res Methods
                Behavior Research Methods
                Springer US (New York )
                1554-351X
                1554-3528
                4 February 2019
                4 February 2019
                2019
                : 51
                : 3
                : 1042-1058
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000000084992262, GRID grid.7177.6, Department of Psychology, Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences, , University of Amsterdam, ; Nieuwe Achtergracht 129-B, 1018WS Amsterdam, The Netherlands
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 973X, GRID grid.5252.0, Department of Psychology, , Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, ; München, Germany
                Article
                1189
                10.3758/s13428-018-01189-8
                6538819
                30719688
                a8a730b0-e108-4ee8-99b4-61a03edb46b6
                © The Author(s) 2019

                OpenAccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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                © The Psychonomic Society, Inc. 2019

                Clinical Psychology & Psychiatry
                sample size,design analysis,bayes factor,power analysis,statistical evidence

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