Real-world validation of the 2017 McDonald criteria for pediatric MS

Abstract

Objective

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the McDonald 2017 vs the McDonald 2010 criteria to predict a second attack of MS (clinically definite MS [CDMS]) at the first attack of acquired demyelinating syndromes (ADS).

Methods

One hundred sixty-four children (aged <18 years) with an incident attack of ADS were included in a prospective multicenter study between June 2006 and December 2016. Brain (and spinal if available) MRI was performed ≤3 months after symptom onset. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were compared at baseline between the 2010 and 2017 criteria.

Results

Among the 164 patients, 110 patients (67%) presented without encephalopathy (ADS–, female 63%; median age 14.8 years, IQR 11.3–16.1years) and 54 (33%) with encephalopathy (acute disseminated encephalomyelitis [ADEM], female 52%; median age 4.0 years, IQR 2.6–6.1 years). Of the 110 ADS– patients, 52 (47%) were diagnosed with CDMS within a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.6–6.7 years). The sensitivity was higher for the 2017 criteria than for the 2010 criteria (83%; 95% CI 67–92, vs 49%; 95% CI 33–65; p < 0.001), but the specificity was lower (73%; 95% CI 59–84 vs 87%; 95% CI 74–94, p = 0.02). At baseline, 48 patients fulfilled the 2017 criteria compared with 27 patients when using the 2010 criteria. The results for children aged <12 years without encephalopathy were similar. In patients with ADEM, 8% fulfilled the 2010 criteria and 10% the 2017 criteria at baseline but no patient fulfilled the criteria for CDMS.

Conclusions

The McDonald 2017 criteria are more sensitive than the McDonald 2010 criteria for predicting CDMS at baseline. These criteria can also be applied in children aged <12 years without encephalopathy but not in children with ADEM.

Classification of evidence

This study provides Class II evidence that in children with ADS, the 2017 McDonald criteria are more sensitive but less specific than the 2010 McDonald criteria for predicting CDMS.