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      Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

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          Abstract

          Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation ( p < 0.05). The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

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          The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics

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            Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models

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              The Contiguity Ratio and Statistical Mapping

              R C GEARY (1954)
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Int J Environ Res Public Health
                Int J Environ Res Public Health
                ijerph
                International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
                MDPI
                1661-7827
                1660-4601
                31 December 2013
                January 2014
                : 11
                : 1
                : 583-599
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Institute of Poyang Lake Eco-economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China; E-Mails: liuzhifei1972@ 123456126.com (Z.L.); landuse2008@ 123456126.com (P.W.); liuguiying_2013@ 123456126.com (G.L.); fucai@ 123456126.com (F.L.)
                [2 ]School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Agriculture University, Nanchang 330045, China
                Author notes
                [* ]Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: xiehualin@ 123456jxufe.edu.cn ; Tel.: +86-791-8381-0957; Fax: +86-791-8381-0892.
                Article
                ijerph-11-00583
                10.3390/ijerph110100583
                3924462
                24384778
                a9735381-9665-4f43-9695-2fdfae640361
                © 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

                This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

                History
                : 25 October 2013
                : 12 December 2013
                : 23 December 2013
                Categories
                Article

                Public health
                ecological land,public health and safety,ecological management,spatial autoregressive model,spatial autocorrelation,land use change

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