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      Patrones históricos y escenarios térmicos futuros en mares mexicanos Translated title: Historical patterns and predicted thermal scenarios in Mexican seas

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          Abstract

          En diversos ámbitos (e.g., académico, público) se requieren predicciones del clima como parte del proceso de toma de decisiones. A pesar de la citada necesidad de información por parte de sectores productivos y servidores públicos, es reconocida la inconsistencia de los modelos globales al predecir el estado del clima en escalas menores (regiones). Considerando lo anterior, se ensayaron las predicciones de la temperatura superficial del mar (TSM) en 10 regiones marinas frente a las costas de México. Mediante árboles de regresión y clasificación se agrupó a los estados costeros según su parecido en registros instrumentales de temperatura del aire (TSA). Tales grupos de TSA se tomaron como variables explicativas regionales junto con índices climáticos de mayor escala (e.g., Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico, ODP). Se caracterizaron los patrones históricos de cambio (Periodo, amplitud y fase) de TSA e índices climáticos y se analizó su relación con la TSM mediante modelos aditivos generalizados (GAM). La respuesta de la TSM ante escenarios climáticos fue evaluada bajo 3 criterios de forzamiento diferentes. Los modelos GAM mostraron ajustes significativos y valores relativamente altos de R² y devianza explicada. Las proyecciones de la variabilidad climática regional mostraron diferencias sustanciales respecto al incremento monotónico de las salidas de TSM de modelos globales. La técnica de re-escalamiento aquí empleada para los mares mexicanos mostró ser útil para integrar la variación histórica con diferentes criterios de forzamiento.

          Translated abstract

          Into different areas (e.g., academic, public) predictions of climate as part of the process of decision-making are required. Despite such information need, the inconsistency of global models to predict the state of the climate in small scales (regions) is widely recognized. Considering this, we tested predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) in 10 marine regions off the coast of Mexico. Using classification and regression trees, Mexican coastal states were grouped accordingly to their similarity in instrumental records of air temperature (AST). Such AST groups were considered explanatory variables together with regional climatic scale indices (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). Historical patterns of change (period, amplitude and phase) of AST and climate indices were characterized, and then its relationship with SST was analyzed using generalized additive models (GAM). The SST response to climatic scenarios was evaluated with 3 different forcing criteria. The GAM models showed significant fits and relatively high values of R² and deviance. Projections of regional climate variability showed substantial differences in comparison to the monotonic increase in SST global models outputs. The re-scaling strategy applied in this work for Mexican seas surface temperature, proved to be useful to integrate the historical variation with different forcing criteria.

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          Most cited references 45

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          Computational Many-Particle Physics

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            SOLAR INFLUENCES ON CLIMATE

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              Generalized additive models: an introduction with R

               SN Wood,  S. WOOD,  S.N. WOOD (2006)
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
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                Journal
                revbiolmar
                Revista de biología marina y oceanografía
                Rev. biol. mar. oceanogr.
                Universidad de Valparaíso. Facultad de Ciencias del Mar (Valparaíso )
                0718-1957
                August 2015
                : 50
                : 2
                : 331-345
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Instituto Politécnico Nacional México
                [2 ] Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur México
                Article
                S0718-19572015000300011
                Product
                Product Information: website
                Categories
                MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
                OCEANOGRAPHY

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