The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in general populations. However, well-designed prospective studies in Asian populations are very limited. We prospectively evaluated a total of 2452 community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40 years or older from 1988 to 2002 and examined the effects of MetS defined by the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria on incident CVD. The prevalence of the MetS was 21% in men and 30% in women at baseline. During the follow up, 307 CVD events occurred. Compared with those without MetS, the age-adjusted incidence of CVD (per 1000 person-years) was significantly higher in subjects with the MetS in both men (21.8 versus 11.6, P<0.01) and women (12.9 versus 6.5, P<0.01). The risk of CVD events was significantly higher even after adjusting for the following confounding factors: age, proteinuria, electrocardiographic abnormalities, serum total cholesterol, smoking habits, alcohol intake, and regular exercise (hazard ratio, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.32 to 2.62 in men and hazard ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.22 to 2.36 in women). The risk of incident CVD was found to increase with the number of components of MetS and became significantly predictive when the number of components reached 3. Similar associations were also observed when CVD was divided into coronary heart disease and stroke. Our findings suggest that MetS is a significant risk factor for the development of CVD in the Japanese middle-aged population.
