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      The Influence of Late Quaternary Climate-Change Velocity on Species Endemism

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      Science
      American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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          Abstract

          The effects of climate change on biodiversity should depend in part on climate displacement rate (climate-change velocity) and its interaction with species' capacity to migrate. We estimated Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate-change velocity by integrating macroclimatic shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum with topoclimatic gradients. Globally, areas with high velocities were associated with marked absences of small-ranged amphibians, mammals, and birds. The association between endemism and velocity was weakest in the highly vagile birds and strongest in the weakly dispersing amphibians, linking dispersal ability to extinction risk due to climate change. High velocity was also associated with low endemism at regional scales, especially in wet and aseasonal regions. Overall, we show that low-velocity areas are essential refuges for Earth's many small-ranged species.

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          The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)

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            A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century.

            Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes. By comparing the altitudinal distribution of 171 forest plant species between 1905 and 1985 and 1986 and 2005 along the entire elevation range (0 to 2600 meters above sea level) in west Europe, we show that climate warming has resulted in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation averaging 29 meters per decade. The shift is larger for species restricted to mountain habitats and for grassy species, which are characterized by faster population turnover. Our study shows that climate change affects the spatial core of the distributional range of plant species, in addition to their distributional margins, as previously reported.
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              Predictions and tests of climate-based hypotheses of broad-scale variation in taxonomic richness

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Science
                Science
                American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
                0036-8075
                1095-9203
                November 03 2011
                November 04 2011
                October 06 2011
                November 04 2011
                : 334
                : 6056
                : 660-664
                Article
                10.1126/science.1210173
                21979937
                abd858fe-4ad5-45ce-a58b-cbceab12ed10
                © 2011
                History

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