A novel modeling tool with multi-stressor functionality for organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea.

Abstract

The coupled physical-biogeochemical model BALTSEM, previously used to assess nutrient/carbon cycles and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea, has been expanded to include algorithms for calculations of organic contaminant environmental transport and fate. This novel model version (BALTSEM-POP) is evaluated for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in Baltic Sea surface water and sediment. Modeled dissolved concentrations are usually within a factor of 2-4 of observed concentrations, however with larger deviations for furans. Calculated concentrations in particulate organic matter are less accurate (within factors of 1-700), likely due to errors in estimated pelagic biomass, particulate matter-water partitioning, and large natural variability in field data. Concentrations in sediments are usually predicted within a factor of 6. The good performance of the model illustrates its usefulness for exploration of contaminant fate in response to variations in nutrient input and climatic conditions in the Baltic Sea marine environment.