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      High Coverage of ART Associated with Decline in Risk of HIV Acquisition in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

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          Cost-Benefit of ART

          In the battle to control HIV, mass antiretroviral treatment (ART) costs $500 to $900 per person per year. Bor et al. (p. [Related article:]961 ) calculated the impact of intensifying ART on the life expectancy of people living in rural KwaZulu Natal. The dates of death were collected from a population of about 100,000 people during 2000–2011: Four years before and 8 years after the scaling up of ART. Life expectancy of adults increased by more than 11 years after ART was expanded, and the economic value of the lifetimes gained were calculated to far exceed the cost of treatment. Tanser et al. (p. [Related article:]966 ) followed nearly 17,000 HIV-uninfected individuals in KwaZulu-Natal over an 8-year period. Holding other HIV risk factors constant, individual HIV acquisition risk declined significantly with increasing ART coverage of HIV-infected people.

          Abstract

          The risk of acquiring HIV is reduced in rural communities via large-scale delivery of antiretroviral therapy.

          Abstract

          The landmark HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 trial in HIV-discordant couples demonstrated unequivocally that treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially lowers the probability of HIV transmission to the HIV-uninfected partner. However, it has been vigorously debated whether substantial population-level reductions in the rate of new HIV infections could be achieved in "real-world" sub-Saharan African settings where stable, cohabiting couples are often not the norm and where considerable operational challenges exist to the successful and sustainable delivery of treatment and care to large numbers of patients. We used data from one of Africa's largest population-based prospective cohort studies (in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa) to follow up a total of 16,667 individuals who were HIV-uninfected at baseline, observing individual HIV seroconversions over the period 2004 to 2011. Holding other key HIV risk factors constant, individual HIV acquisition risk declined significantly with increasing ART coverage in the surrounding local community. For example, an HIV-uninfected individual living in a community with high ART coverage (30 to 40% of all HIV-infected individuals on ART) was 38% less likely to acquire HIV than someone living in a community where ART coverage was low (<10% of all HIV-infected individuals on ART).

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          Most cited references29

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          Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy.

          Antiretroviral therapy that reduces viral replication could limit the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples. In nine countries, we enrolled 1763 couples in which one partner was HIV-1-positive and the other was HIV-1-negative; 54% of the subjects were from Africa, and 50% of infected partners were men. HIV-1-infected subjects with CD4 counts between 350 and 550 cells per cubic millimeter were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive antiretroviral therapy either immediately (early therapy) or after a decline in the CD4 count or the onset of HIV-1-related symptoms (delayed therapy). The primary prevention end point was linked HIV-1 transmission in HIV-1-negative partners. The primary clinical end point was the earliest occurrence of pulmonary tuberculosis, severe bacterial infection, a World Health Organization stage 4 event, or death. As of February 21, 2011, a total of 39 HIV-1 transmissions were observed (incidence rate, 1.2 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 1.7); of these, 28 were virologically linked to the infected partner (incidence rate, 0.9 per 100 person-years, 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.3). Of the 28 linked transmissions, only 1 occurred in the early-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.27; P<0.001). Subjects receiving early therapy had fewer treatment end points (hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.88; P=0.01). The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy reduced rates of sexual transmission of HIV-1 and clinical events, indicating both personal and public health benefits from such therapy. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; HPTN 052 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00074581.).
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            Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews

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              Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model.

              Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2.7 million became infected with HIV in 2007. Prevention efforts might reduce HIV incidence but are unlikely to eliminate this disease. We investigated a theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, and examined the conditions under which the HIV epidemic could be driven towards elimination. We used mathematical models to explore the effect on the case reproduction number (stochastic model) and long-term dynamics of the HIV epidemic (deterministic transmission model) of testing all people in our test-case community (aged 15 years and older) for HIV every year and starting people on ART immediately after they are diagnosed HIV positive. We used data from South Africa as the test case for a generalised epidemic, and assumed that all HIV transmission was heterosexual. The studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. We estimate that in 2032, the yearly cost of the present strategy and the theoretical strategy would both be US$1.7 billion; however, after this time, the cost of the present strategy would continue to increase whereas that of the theoretical strategy would decrease. Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics. This approach merits further mathematical modelling, research, and broad consultation.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Science
                Science
                American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
                0036-8075
                1095-9203
                February 22 2013
                February 22 2013
                : 339
                : 6122
                : 966-971
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
                [2 ]Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
                [3 ]Centre for Paediatric Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University College London Institute of Child Health, London, UK.
                Article
                10.1126/science.1228160
                4255272
                23430656
                ad65f3df-0f52-457d-879e-f910e4d2339c
                © 2013
                History

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