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      Interplay between changing climate and species' ecology drives macroevolutionary dynamics.

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          Abstract

          Ecological change provokes speciation and extinction, but our knowledge of the interplay among the biotic and abiotic drivers of macroevolution remains limited. Using the unparalleled fossil record of Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera, we demonstrate that macroevolutionary dynamics depend on the interaction between species' ecology and the changing climate. This interplay drives diversification but differs between speciation probability and extinction risk: Speciation was more strongly shaped by diversity dependence than by climate change, whereas the reverse was true for extinction. Crucially, no single ecology was optimal in all environments, and species with distinct ecologies had significantly different probabilities of speciation and extinction. The ensuing macroevolutionary dynamics depend fundamentally on the ecological structure of species' assemblages.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Science
          Science (New York, N.Y.)
          American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
          1095-9203
          0036-8075
          Apr 15 2011
          : 332
          : 6027
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Division of Biology, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK. t.ezard@surrey.ac.uk
          Article
          332/6027/349
          10.1126/science.1203060
          21493859
          ade0b3e9-23ee-42b1-92d3-60bfbda2eab3

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