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Abstract
Of the mosquito-borne arboviruses, the encephalitic Murray Valley encephalitis and
Kunjin viruses are a major public health concern, but the arthritides Ross River and
Barmah Forest viruses are more important in a public health sense, being responsible
for a far greater number of infections. Reported cases of Ross River totalled approximately
30,000 during 1991-1996; there have been several widely separated outbreaks of Barmah
Forest in recent years and case reports are increasing annually. Surveillance programmes
have increased our understanding of the geographic regions, climatic conditions and
vector factors associated with viruses. Virus activity is widespread but is often
localised, is driven primarily by mosquito abundance and various species are involved;
host factors are involved also, but are not well understood. Typically, mosquito populations
are governed by availability of habitat and environmental conditions. Models of climate
change predict increases in rainfall, tides and temperature for parts of Australia,
and such changes have the potential to increase the risk of arbovirus transmission
by increasing the distribution and abundance of vectors, and duration of mosquito
and arbovirus seasons. However, the amplitude of climate change is uncertain and the
ecology of arbovirus transmission is complex. It is likely that some areas will have
increases in arbovirus activity and human infection with predicted climate change,
but risk of increased transmission will vary with locality, vector, host and human
factors.