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      50-year trends in smoking-related mortality in the United States.

      The New England journal of medicine

      Aged, 80 and over, Aged, Cause of Death, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, mortality, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, trends, Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive, Risk, Sex Distribution, Smoking, adverse effects, epidemiology, United States

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          Abstract

          The disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear. We measured temporal trends in mortality across three time periods (1959-1965, 1982-1988, and 2000-2010), comparing absolute and relative risks according to sex and self-reported smoking status in two historical cohort studies and in five pooled contemporary cohort studies, among participants who became 55 years of age or older during follow-up. For women who were current smokers, as compared with women who had never smoked, the relative risks of death from lung cancer were 2.73, 12.65, and 25.66 in the 1960s, 1980s, and contemporary cohorts, respectively; corresponding relative risks for male current smokers, as compared with men who had never smoked, were 12.22, 23.81, and 24.97. In the contemporary cohorts, male and female current smokers also had similar relative risks for death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (25.61 for men and 22.35 for women), ischemic heart disease (2.50 for men and 2.86 for women), any type of stroke (1.92 for men and 2.10 for women), and all causes combined (2.80 for men and 2.76 for women). Mortality from COPD among male smokers continued to increase in the contemporary cohorts in nearly all the age groups represented in the study and within each stratum of duration and intensity of smoking. Among men 55 to 74 years of age and women 60 to 74 years of age, all-cause mortality was at least three times as high among current smokers as among those who had never smoked. Smoking cessation at any age dramatically reduced death rates. The risk of death from cigarette smoking continues to increase among women and the increased risks are now nearly identical for men and women, as compared with persons who have never smoked. Among men, the risks associated with smoking have plateaued at the high levels seen in the 1980s, except for a continuing, unexplained increase in mortality from COPD.

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          Most cited references 11

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          21st-Century Hazards of Smoking and Benefits of Cessation in the United States

          Extrapolation from studies in the 1980s suggests that smoking causes 25% of deaths among women and men 35 to 69 years of age in the United States. Nationally representative measurements of the current risks of smoking and the benefits of cessation at various ages are unavailable. We obtained smoking and smoking-cessation histories from 113,752 women and 88,496 men 25 years of age or older who were interviewed between 1997 and 2004 in the U.S. National Health Interview Survey and related these data to the causes of deaths that occurred by December 31, 2006 (8236 deaths in women and 7479 in men). Hazard ratios for death among current smokers, as compared with those who had never smoked, were adjusted for age, educational level, adiposity, and alcohol consumption. For participants who were 25 to 79 years of age, the rate of death from any cause among current smokers was about three times that among those who had never smoked (hazard ratio for women, 3.0; 99% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 3.3; hazard ratio for men, 2.8; 99% CI, 2.4 to 3.1). Most of the excess mortality among smokers was due to neoplastic, vascular, respiratory, and other diseases that can be caused by smoking. The probability of surviving from 25 to 79 years of age was about twice as great in those who had never smoked as in current smokers (70% vs. 38% among women and 61% vs. 26% among men). Life expectancy was shortened by more than 10 years among the current smokers, as compared with those who had never smoked. Adults who had quit smoking at 25 to 34, 35 to 44, or 45 to 54 years of age gained about 10, 9, and 6 years of life, respectively, as compared with those who continued to smoke. Smokers lose at least one decade of life expectancy, as compared with those who have never smoked. Cessation before the age of 40 years reduces the risk of death associated with continued smoking by about 90%.
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            The women's health initiative recruitment methods and results

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              The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort: rationale, study design, and baseline characteristics.

              Large-scale, prospective cohort studies have played a critical role in discovering factors that contribute to variability in cancer risk in human populations. Epidemiologists and volunteers at the American Cancer Society (ACS) were among the first to establish such cohorts, beginning in the early 1950s and continuing through the present, and these ACS cohorts have made landmark contributions in many areas of epidemiologic research. The Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort was established in 1992 and was designed to investigate the relation between diet and other lifestyle factors and exposures and the risk of cancer, mortality, and survival. The cohort includes over 84,000 men and 97,000 women who completed a mailed questionnaire in 1992. New questionnaires are sent to surviving cohort members every other year to update exposure information and to ascertain new occurrences of cancer; a 90% response rate was achieved for follow-up questionnaires in 1997 and 1999. Reported cancers are verified through medical records, registry linkage, or death certificates. The cohort is followed actively for all cases of incident cancer and for all causes of death. Through a collaborative effort among ACS national and division staff, volunteers, and the American College of Surgeons, blood samples were collected from a subgroup of 40,000 cohort members and are in storage at a central repository for future investigation of dietary, hormonal, genetic, and other factors and cancer risk. Collection of DNA samples from buccal cells in an additional 50,000 cohort members is underway currently and will be completed in 2002. This new cohort of both men and women promises to be particularly valuable for the study of cancer occurrence, mortality, and survival as they relate to obesity and weight change, physical activity at various points in life, vitamin supplement use, exogenous hormone use, other medications (such as aspirin and nonsteroidal anti- inflammatory drugs) and cancer screening modalities. Copyright 2002 American Cancer Society.DOI 10.1002/cncr.101970
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                23343064
                3632080
                10.1056/NEJMsa1211127

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