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      Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors

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          Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

          Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.
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            Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes

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              Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Climatic Change
                Climatic Change
                Springer Nature
                0165-0009
                1573-1480
                February 2015
                September 9 2014
                February 2015
                : 128
                : 3-4
                : 279-292
                Article
                10.1007/s10584-014-1239-4
                b06a8855-c9fa-446d-8528-2ea0f128ef14
                © 2015
                History

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