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# Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan

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### Abstract

To assess the effectiveness of the containment strategies proposed in Japan, an SEIAQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-quarantined-recovered) model was established to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. We divided the spread of COVID-19 in Japan into different stages based on policies. The effective reproduction number $R e$ and the transmission parameters were determined to evaluate the measures conducted by the Japanese Government during these periods. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese authority declared a state of emergency to control the rapid development of the pandemic. Based on the simulation results, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan can be inhibited by containment actions during the state of emergency. The effective reproduction number $R e$ reduced from 1.99 (before the state of emergency) to 0.92 (after the state of emergency). The transmission parameters were fitted and characterized with quantifiable variables including the ratio of untracked cases, the PCR test index and the proportion of COCOA app users (official contact confirming application). The impact of these variables on the control of COVID-19 was investigated in the modelling analysis. On 8 January 2021, the Japanese Government declared another state of emergency. The simulated results demonstrated that the spread could be controlled in May by keeping the same strategies. A higher intensity of PCR testing was suggested, and a larger proportion of COCOA app users should reduce the final number of infections and the time needed to control the spread of COVID-19.

### Most cited references49

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### Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China

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### A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019

(2020)
Summary In December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown cause was linked to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan, China. A previously unknown betacoronavirus was discovered through the use of unbiased sequencing in samples from patients with pneumonia. Human airway epithelial cells were used to isolate a novel coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, which formed a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily. Different from both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV is the seventh member of the family of coronaviruses that infect humans. Enhanced surveillance and further investigation are ongoing. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China.)
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### Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

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### Author and article information

###### Journal
Int J Environ Res Public Health
Int J Environ Res Public Health
ijerph
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
MDPI
1661-7827
1660-4601
26 June 2021
July 2021
: 18
: 13
###### Affiliations
[1 ]College of Engineering and Design, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China; chenzx@ 123456hunnu.edu.cn (Z.C.); hxxpxj01@ 123456163.com (X.H.); pengke@ 123456hunnu.edu.cn (K.P.)
[2 ]School of Engineering and Technology, University of Washington, Tacoma, WA 98402, USA; zqshu@ 123456uw.edu
[3 ]State Key Laboratory of Developmental Biology of Freshwater Fish, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
###### Article
ijerph-18-06858
10.3390/ijerph18136858
8296992
34206732