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      Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

      research-article
      1 , 2 , * , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 12 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 12 , 15 , 12 , 12 , 16 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 15 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 4 , 22 , 12 , 23 , 14 , 24 , 14 , 25 , 26 , 12 , 27 , 19 , 28 , 29 , 29 , 30 , 30 , 6 , 12 , 31 , 31 , 13 , 28 , 10 , 14 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 28 , 35 , 36 , 8 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 13 , 13 , 41 , 13 , 42 , 13 , 13 , 43 , 43 , 10 , 44 , 45 , 45 , 13 , 13 , 10 , 46 , 47 , 13 , 48 , 8 , 23 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 , 56 , 49 , 12 , 57 , 58 , 59 , 60 , 14 , 61 , 62 , 28 , 63 , 64 , 17 , 65 , 18 , 28 , 66 , 67 , 68 , 1 , 69 , 12 , 12 , 28 , 70 , 71 , 72 , 73 , 74 , 12 , 75 , 75 , 76 , 77 , 78 , 79 , 80 , 81 , 81 , 40 , 82 , 83 , 84 , 12 , 85 , 85 , 86 , 87 , 84 , 3 , 88 , 89 , 83 , 90 , 91 , 28 , 65 , 12 , 92 , 93 , 8 , 84 , 26 , 45 , 94 , 95 , 65 , 96 , 20 , 97 , 98 , 99 , 100 , 101 , 99 , 101 , 102 , 19
      Science Advances
      American Association for the Advancement of Science
      Amazonia, Conservation, Deforestation, Protected areas, Indigenous areas, Tree species

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          Abstract

          Analyses of forest loss and protected areas suggest that 36 to 57% of Amazonian tree flora may qualify as “globally threatened.”

          Abstract

          Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world’s >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.

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          High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

          Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.
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            The Relation Between the Number of Species and the Number of Individuals in a Random Sample of an Animal Population

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              Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon.

              The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system. This century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change. Here, we summarize some of the latest findings and thinking on these threats, explore the consequences for the forest ecosystem and its human residents, and outline options for the future of Amazonia. We also discuss the implications of new proposals to finance preservation of Amazonian forests.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Adv
                Sci Adv
                SciAdv
                advances
                Science Advances
                American Association for the Advancement of Science
                2375-2548
                November 2015
                20 November 2015
                : 1
                : 10
                : e1500936
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Biodiversity Dynamics, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Darwin building, Darwinweg 4, Leiden 2300 AA, The Netherlands.
                [2 ]Ecology and Biodiversity Group, Utrecht University, Padualaan 8, Utrecht, Netherlands.
                [3 ]Science and Education, The Field Museum, 1400 S. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605–2496, USA.
                [4 ]Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
                [5 ]Agteca-Amazonica, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
                [6 ]Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4870, Australia.
                [7 ]School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
                [8 ]Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720–3140, USA.
                [9 ]Museo Ecuatoriano de Ciencias Naturales, Av. Río Coca E6-115 e Isla Floreana, Quito, Ecuador.
                [10 ]Coordenação de Botânica, Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Av. Magalhaes Barata 376, C.P. 399, Belém, PA 66040–170, Brazil.
                [11 ]EMBRAPA – Centro de Pesquisa Agroflorestal de Roraima, BR 174, km 8 – Distrito Industrial, Boa Vista, RR 69301–970, Brazil.
                [12 ]Coordenação de Biodiversidade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA, Av. André Araújo, 2936, Petrópolis, Manaus, AM 69060–001, Brazil.
                [13 ]Coordenação de Pesquisas em Ecologia, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA, Av. André Araújo, 2936, Petrópolis, Manaus, AM 69060–001, Brazil.
                [14 ]School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
                [15 ]Instituto de Pesquisas Científicas e Tecnológicas do Amapá - IEPA, Av. Feliciano Coelho, 1509. Trem, Macapá, Amapá 68901–025, Brazil.
                [16 ]UMR AMAP, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), TA 40/PS2, Boulevard de la Lironde, Montpellier Cedex 5 34398, France.
                [17 ]Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner Weg 1, Mainz 55128, Germany.
                [18 ]Herbario Amazónico Colombiano, Instituto SINCHI, Calle 20 No 5, Bogotá, DF 44, Colombia.
                [19 ]Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, Pasco, Peru.
                [20 ]Herbario Vargas, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, Avenida de la Cultura, Nro 733, Cusco, Cuzco, Peru.
                [21 ]Departamento de Biologia, Universidade Federal de Rondônia, Rodovia BR 364 s/n Km 9,5 - Sentido Acre, Unir, Porto Velho, Rondônia 76.824-027, Brazil.
                [22 ]Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Regional e Meio Ambiente PGDRA, Universidade Federal de Rondônia, Rodovia BR 364 s/n Km 9,5 - Sentido Acre, Unir, Porto Velho, Rondônia 76.824-028, Brazil.
                [23 ]Instituto Boliviano de Investigacion Forestal, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Km 9 Carretera al Norte, El Vallecito, FCA-UAGRM, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
                [24 ]College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK.
                [25 ]Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana, Av. José A. Quiñones km. 2.5, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.
                [26 ]Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Calle 64 x Cra 65, Medellín, Antioquia 1027, Colombia.
                [27 ]Facultad de Ciencias Agrícolas, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
                [28 ]Coordenação de Dinâmica Ambiental, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA, Av. André Araújo, 2936, Petrópolis, Manaus, AM 69060–001, Brazil.
                [29 ]Prédio da Botânica e Ecologia, Embrapa Recursos Genéticos e Biotecnologia, Parque Estaccao Biologica, Av. W5 Norte, Brasilia, DF 70770–917, Brazil.
                [30 ]Projeto Dinâmica Biológica de Fragmentos Florestais, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA, Av. André Araújo, 2936, Petrópolis, Manaus, AM 69060–001, Brazil.
                [31 ]Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina, MT, Brazil.
                [32 ]Universidad Nacional Experimental de Guayana, Calle Chile, urbaniz Chilemex, Puerto Ordaz, Bolivar, Venezuela.
                [33 ]Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Sciencepark 904, Amsterdam, Noord Holland 1098 XH, The Netherlands.
                [34 ]Endangered Species Coalition, 8530 Geren Rd., Silver Spring, MD 20901, USA.
                [35 ]Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar, Herbario Universitario (PORT), UNELLEZ-Guanare, Guanare, Portuguesa 3350, Venezuela.
                [36 ]Inventory and Monitoring Program, National Park Service, 120 Chatham Lane, Fredericksburg, VA 22405, USA.
                [37 ]Biologia Vegetal, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Caixa Postal 6109, Campinas, SP 13.083-970, Brazil.
                [38 ]Institute of Molecular Plant Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Rd, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, UK.
                [39 ]Royal Botanic Garden of Edinburgh, 20a Inverleith Row, Edinburgh EH3 5LR, UK.
                [40 ]Laboratorio de Ecología de Bosques Tropicales y Primatología, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, DF, Colombia.
                [41 ]Comparative Plant and Fungal Biology, Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 3AB, UK.
                [42 ]Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, University of Wageningen, Lumen, building no.100, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, Wageningen 6708 PB, Netherlands.
                [43 ]Center for Conservation Education and Sustainability, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, MRC 0705, Washington, DC 20013–7012, USA.
                [44 ]Ecosistemas, Biodiversidad y Conservación de Especies, Universidad Estatal Amazónica, Km. 2 1/2 vía a Tena (Paso Lateral), Puyo, Pastaza, Ecuador.
                [45 ]Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Avenida Irala 565 Casilla Post al 2489, Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
                [46 ]Diretoria de Pesquisas Científicas, Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
                [47 ]Coordenação de Tecnologia e Inovação, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - INPA, Av. André Araújo, 2936, Petrópolis, Manaus, AM 69060–001, Brazil.
                [48 ]Centro de Biociências, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Campus Universitário - Lagoa Nova, Natal, RN 59072–970, Brazil.
                [49 ]UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Campus agronomique, Kourou Cedex 97379, French Guiana.
                [50 ]International Center for Tropical Botany (ICTB), Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, OE 167, Miami, FL 33199, USA.
                [51 ]Escuela de Biología Herbario Alfredo Paredes, Universidad Central, Ap. Postal 17.01.2177, Quito, Pichincha, Ecuador.
                [52 ]UMR Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane, CNRS, Kourou Cedex, French Guiana.
                [53 ]Department of Biological Sciences, Humboldt State University, 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521, USA.
                [54 ]Grupo de Ecología de Ecosistemas Terrestres Tropicales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Amazonía, Leticia, Amazonas, Colombia.
                [55 ]Taxonomy and Systematics, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Darwin building, Darwinweg 4, Leiden 2300 AA, The Netherlands.
                [56 ]Universidad Regional Amazónica IKIAM, Km 7 via Muyuna, Tena, Napo, Ecuador.
                [57 ]Museu Universitário, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, AC 69915–559, Brazil.
                [58 ]Land Resource and Management Unit, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, TP 440, Ispra, VA I-21027, Italy.
                [59 ]Institute of Biological and Health Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Av. Lourival Melo Mota, s/n, Tabuleiro do Martins, Maceio, AL 57072–970, Brazil.
                [60 ]Iwokrama International Programme for Rainforest Conservation, Georgetown, Guyana.
                [61 ]New York Botanical Garden, 2900 Southern Blvd, Bronx, New York, NY 10458–5126, USA.
                [62 ]Servicios de Biodiversidad EIRL, Iquitos, Loreto, Peru.
                [63 ]Herbario Nacional de Bolivia, Universitario UMSA, Casilla 10077 Correo Central, La Paz, Bolivia.
                [64 ]Missouri Botanical Garden, P.O. Box 299, St. Louis, MO 63166–0299, USA.
                [65 ]Biology Department and Center for Energy, Environment and Sustainability, Wake Forest University, 1834 Wake Forest Rd, Winston Salem, NC 27106, USA.
                [66 ]Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program, Madre de Dios, Madre de Dios, Peru.
                [67 ]Department of Anthropology, University of Texas at Austin, SAC 5.150, 2201 Speedway Stop C3200, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
                [68 ]Fundación Puerto Rastrojo, Cra 10 No. 24–76 Oficina 1201, Bogotá, DF, Colombia.
                [69 ]Fundación Estación de Biología, Cra 10 No. 24–76 Oficina 1201, Bogotá, DF, Colombia.
                [70 ]Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis da Amazônia (EDTA), Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Rua Terezina, 476, Adrianópolis, Manaus, AM 69057–070, Brazil.
                [71 ]ACEER Foundation, Jirón Cusco N° 370, Puerto Maldonado, Madre de Dios, Peru.
                [72 ]Departement EV, Muséum national d’histoire naturelle de Paris, 16 rue Buffon, Paris 75005, France.
                [73 ]Amazon Conservation Team, Doekhieweg Oost #24, Paramaribo, Suriname.
                [74 ]Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford, England OX1 3QY, UK.
                [75 ]Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, UNAL, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Apartado 7945, Bogotá, DF, Colombia.
                [76 ]Embrapa Amazonia Oriental, Trav. Dr. Enéas Pinheiro s/n o, Belém, PA, Brazil.
                [77 ]Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia, Belém, PA, Brazil.
                [78 ]Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco, San Martín 451, Puerto Maldonado, Madre de Dios, Peru.
                [79 ]Universidad Autónoma del Beni, Riberalta, Beni, Bolivia.
                [80 ]Regional Norte Amazónico, Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado, Riberalta, Beni, Bolivia.
                [81 ]Laboratory of Human Ecology, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas - IVIC, Ado 20632, Caracas 1020A, Venezuela.
                [82 ]Laboratório de Ciências Ambientais, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense, Av. Alberto Lamego 2000, Campos dos Goyatacazes, RJ 28013–620, Brazil.
                [83 ]Instituto de Biociências - Dept. Ecologia, Universidade de Sao Paulo - USP, Rua do Matão, Trav. 14, no. 321, Cidade Universitária, São Paulo, SP 05508–090, Brazil.
                [84 ]Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Forestal (INDEFOR), Universidad de los Andes, Conjunto Forestal, C.P. 5101, Mérida, Mérida, Venezuela.
                [85 ]GeoIS, El Día 369 y El Telégrafo, 3° Piso, Quito, Pichincha, Ecuador.
                [86 ]Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
                [87 ]Department of Biological Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53202, USA.
                [88 ]Environmental Science and Policy, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.
                [89 ]Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin, 305 E. 23rd Street, CLA building, Austin, TX 78712, USA.
                [90 ]Agricultural Services, Ministry of Agro-Industry and Food Security, The Mauritius Herbarium, Reduit, Mauritius.
                [91 ]Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Building 1540 Ny Munkegade, Aarhus C, Aarhus DK-8000, Denmark.
                [92 ]FOMABO, Manejo Forestal en las Tierras Tropicales de Bolivia, Sacta, Cochabamba, Bolivia.
                [93 ]Escuela de Ciencias Forestales (ESFOR), Universidad Mayor de San Simon (UMSS), Sacta, Cochabamba, Bolivia.
                [94 ]Tropenbos International, Lawickse Allee 11 PO Box 232, Wageningen 6700 AE, The Netherlands.
                [95 ]School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Marlowe Building, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NR, UK.
                [96 ]Centro de Investigaciones Ecológicas de Guayana, Universidad Nacional Experimental de Guayana, Calle Chile urbaniz Chilemex, Puerto Ordaz, Bolivar, Venezuela.
                [97 ]Comparative Plant and Fungal Biology, Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 3AE, UK.
                [98 ]Herbario Nacional del Ecuador, Universidad Técnica del Norte, Quito, Pichincha, Ecuador.
                [99 ]Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Regional e Meio Ambiente PGDRA, Universidade Federal de Rondônia, Rodovia BR 364 s/n Km 9,5 - Sentido Acre, Unir, Porto Velho, Rondônia 76.824-029, Brazil.
                [100 ]Instituto de Biodiversidade e Floresta, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Pará, Rua Vera Paz, Campus Tapajós, Santarém, PA 68015–110, Brazil.
                [101 ]Facultad de Biologia, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peruana, Pevas 5ta cdra, Iquitos, Peru.
                [102 ]Department of Biology, University of Missouri, St. Louis, MO 63121, USA.
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. E-mail: hans.tersteege@ 123456naturalis.nl
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                Article
                1500936
                10.1126/sciadv.1500936
                4681336
                26702442
                b0e3d94e-4d3e-423e-a82a-e5ed6ff9ec3f
                Copyright © 2015, The Authors

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 15 July 2015
                : 07 October 2015
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                amazonia,conservation,deforestation,protected areas,indigenous areas,tree species

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