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      Death in low-risk cardiac surgery revisited

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          Abstract

          Background

          A systematic review of low-risk death has been shown successful in identifying system weaknesses. The aim was to analyse early mortality in low-risk patients undergoing cardiac surgery and to determine the cause of death, classify if they were unavoidable or potentially preventable as a result of technical or system errors.

          Methods

          We included all low-risk patients who underwent cardiac surgery at our institution from 1 September 2009 to 31 August 2019. In patients operated between 2009 and 2011, we defined low risk as an additive European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) I less than or equal to 3, and from 2012 and onwards as a EuroSCORE II less than or equal to 1.5. The medical records for the patients who died within 30 days of surgery were thoroughly examined and the cause of death was classified as cardiac or non-cardiac. Furthermore, deaths were categorised as not preventable, preventable (technical error) or preventable (system error).

          Results

          During the study period 3103 low-risk patients underwent surgery, and 11 patients died within 30 days of the operation (0.35%). Six of these (55%) were classified as preventable and five non-preventable. Four of the preventable deaths were classified as technical errors and two were due to system errors.

          Conclusions

          A repeated systematic review of deaths in patients with a low preoperative risk showed that a majority of deaths were preventable, and therefore potentially avoidable. Similar to the previous assessment at our unit, mortality was very low and failure to communicate remains a modifiable factor that should be addressed.

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          Most cited references14

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          European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE).

          To construct a scoring system for the prediction of early mortality in cardiac surgical patients in Europe on the basis of objective risk factors. The EuroSCORE database was divided into developmental and validation subsets. In the former, risk factors deemed to be objective, credible, obtainable and difficult to falsify were weighted on the basis of regression analysis. An additive score of predicted mortality was constructed. Its calibration and discrimination characteristics were assessed in the validation dataset. Thresholds were defined to distinguish low, moderate and high risk groups. The developmental dataset had 13,302 patients, calibration by Hosmer Lemeshow Chi square was (8) = 8.26 (P 200 micromol/l (2), active endocarditis (3) and critical preoperative state (3). Cardiac factors were unstable angina on intravenous nitrates (2), reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (30-50%: 1, 60 mmHg (2). Operation-related factors were emergency (2), other than isolated coronary surgery (2), thoracic aorta surgery (3) and surgery for postinfarct septal rupture (4). The scoring system was then applied to three risk groups. The low risk group (EuroSCORE 1-2) had 4529 patients with 36 deaths (0.8%), 95% confidence limits for observed mortality (0.56-1.10) and for expected mortality (1.27-1.29). The medium risk group (EuroSCORE 3-5) had 5977 patients with 182 deaths (3%), observed mortality (2.62-3.51), predicted (2.90-2.94). The high risk group (EuroSCORE 6 plus) had 4293 patients with 480 deaths (11.2%) observed mortality (10.25-12.16), predicted (10.93-11.54). Overall, there were 698 deaths in 14,799 patients (4.7%), observed mortality (4.37-5.06), predicted (4.72-4.95). EuroSCORE is a simple, objective and up-to-date system for assessing heart surgery, soundly based on one of the largest, most complete and accurate databases in European cardiac surgical history. We recommend its widespread use.
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            Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients.

            To assess risk factors for mortality in cardiac surgical adult patients as part of a study to develop a European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE). From September to November 1995, information on risk factors and mortality was collected for 19030 consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass in 128 surgical centres in eight European states. Data were collected for 68 preoperative and 29 operative risk factors proven or believed to influence hospital mortality. The relationship between risk factors and outcome was assessed by univariate and logistic regression analysis. Mean age (+/- standard deviation) was 62.5+/-10.7 (range 17-94 years) and 28% were female. Mean body mass index was 26.3+/-3.9. The incidence of common risk factors was as follows: hypertension 43.6%, diabetes 16.7%, extracardiac arteriopathy 2.9%, chronic renal failure 3.5%, chronic pulmonary disease 3.9%, previous cardiac surgery 7.3% and impaired left ventricular function 31.4%. Isolated coronary surgery accounted for 63.6% of all procedures, and 29.8% of patients had valve operations. Overall hospital mortality was 4.8%. Coronary surgery mortality was 3.4% In the absence of any identifiable risk factors, mortality was 0.4% for coronary surgery, 1% for mitral valve surgery, 1.1% for aortic valve surgery and 0% for atrial septal defect repair. The following risk factors were associated with increased mortality: age (P = 0.001), female gender (P = 0.001), serum creatinine (P = 0.001), extracardiac arteriopathy (P = 0.001), chronic airway disease (P = 0.006), severe neurological dysfunction (P = 0.001), previous cardiac surgery (P = 0.001), recent myocardial infarction (P = 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (P = 0.001), chronic congestive cardiac failure (P = 0.001), pulmonary hypertension (P = 0.001), active endocarditis (P = 0.001), unstable angina (P = 0.001), procedure urgency (P = 0.001), critical preoperative condition (P = 0.001) ventricular septal rupture (P = 0.002), noncoronary surgery (P = 0.001), thoracic aortic surgery (P = 0.001). A number of risk factors contribute to cardiac surgical mortality in Europe. This information can be used to develop a risk stratification system for the prediction of hospital mortality and the assessment of quality of care.
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              Validity of the Swedish Cardiac Surgery Registry

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Open Heart
                Open Heart
                openhrt
                openheart
                Open Heart
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2053-3624
                2020
                17 March 2020
                : 7
                : 1
                : e001244
                Affiliations
                [1 ]departmentDepartment of Cardiothoracic Surgery , Karolinska University Hospital , Stockholm, Sweden
                [2 ]departmentDepartment of Molecular Medicine and Surgery , Karolinska Institutet , Stockholm, Sweden
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Ulrik Sartipy; Ulrik.Sartipy@ 123456ki.se
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2707-0263
                Article
                openhrt-2020-001244
                10.1136/openhrt-2020-001244
                7078930
                32206318
                b1e60f4e-07c8-459f-9edf-5d4b3142effb
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                : 07 January 2020
                : 16 February 2020
                : 27 February 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003793, Hjärt-Lungfonden;
                Award ID: 20160522
                Award ID: 20160525
                Award ID: 20180400
                Funded by: The regional ALF agreement between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet;
                Award ID: 20180114
                Funded by: Karolinska Institutet Foundations and Funds;
                Award ID: 2018-01784
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007435, Åke Wiberg Stiftelse;
                Award ID: M18-0016
                Categories
                Cardiac Surgery
                1506
                Original research
                Custom metadata
                unlocked

                cardiac surgery,quality of care and outcomes,surgery-coronary bypass,surgery-valve

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