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      A Universal Hurricane Frequency Function

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          Abstract

          Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The data-driven model presented here carries stark implications for the large increased numbers of hurricanes which it predicts for a warmer world. Moreover, the rise in recent decades in the numbers of hurricanes in the Atlantic, but not the Pacific basin, is shown to have a simple explanation in terms of the specific form of H(z), which yields larger percentage increases when a fixed increase in sea surface temperature occurs at higher latitudes and lower temperatures.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          17 February 2010
          Article
          10.1155/2010/763502.
          1002.3291
          b22fbed7-e5c0-482f-b275-a9d704d3625c

          http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

          History
          Custom metadata
          763502, 6 pages, 2010
          In press with "Advances in Meteorology"
          physics.ao-ph physics.data-an

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