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      Discordance in prediction for prognosis of type 2 diabetes after metabolic surgery: comparison of the ABCD, DiaRem, and individualized metabolic surgery models

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          Abstract

          Purpose

          Metabolic surgery has been performed as a treatment option for uncontrolled type 2 diabetes (T2D), and several scoring systems for predicting postoperative T2D remission have been proposed. This study was designed to assess consistency of 3 existing scoring systems in patients with T2D duration <1 year.

          Methods

          This study included 186 patients with T2D enrolled in a university hospital prospective database between 2011 and 2013. Externally validated scoring systems for predicting T2D prognosis after metabolic surgery were identified and selected through systematic literature search. We assessed concordance between ABCD, DiaRem, and individualized metabolic surgery (IMS) scores in participants using kappa statistical analysis and 1-way analysis of variance.

          Results

          Of the participants, 52 and 82 patients were expected to have favorable T2D remission after metabolic surgery with ABCD score of 10–5 and DiaRem score of 0–7, respectively, and a slight-to-fair concordance was shown between the 2 scoring systems (kappa measure, 0.07; standard error [SE], 0.05 and kappa measure, 0.25; SE, 0.19, respectively). The DiaRem score increased with T2D severity determined by IMS score (P < 0.001), while the ABCD score showed no significant association with IMS score.

          Conclusion

          ABCD and DiaRem scores showed significant discordance when applied to potential metabolic surgery candidates in whom postoperative T2D remission rate was highly expected. The IMS score showed a dose-response association with DiaRem score but had no significant association with the ABCD score.

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          Most cited references20

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          Bariatric surgery: an IDF statement for obese Type 2 diabetes

          The International Diabetes Federation Taskforce on Epidemiology and Prevention of Diabetes convened a consensus working group of diabetologists, endocrinologists, surgeons and public health experts to review the appropriate role of surgery and other gastrointestinal interventions in the treatment and prevention of Type 2 diabetes. The specific goals were: to develop practical recommendations for clinicians on patient selection; to identify barriers to surgical access and suggest interventions for health policy changes that ensure equitable access to surgery when indicated; and to identify priorities for research. Bariatric surgery can significantly improve glycaemic control in severely obese patients with Type 2 diabetes. It is an effective, safe and cost-effective therapy for obese Type 2 diabetes. Surgery can be considered an appropriate treatment for people with Type 2 diabetes and obesity not achieving recommended treatment targets with medical therapies, especially in the presence of other major co-morbidities. The procedures must be performed within accepted guidelines and require appropriate multidisciplinary assessment for the procedure, comprehensive patient education and ongoing care, as well as safe and standardized surgical procedures. National guidelines for bariatric surgery need to be developed for people with Type 2 diabetes and a BMI of 35 kg/m2 or more.
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            Preoperative prediction of type 2 diabetes remission after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery: a retrospective cohort study.

            About 60% of patients with type 2 diabetes achieve remission after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery. No accurate method is available to preoperatively predict the probability of remission. Our goal was to develop a way to predict probability of diabetes remission after RYGB surgery on the basis of preoperative clinical criteria. In a retrospective cohort study, we identified individuals with type 2 diabetes for whom electronic medical records were available from a primary cohort of 2300 patients who underwent RYGB surgery at the Geisinger Health System (Danville, PA, USA) between Jan 1, 2004, and Feb 15, 2011. Partial and complete remission were defined according to the American Diabetes Association criteria. We examined 259 clinical variables for our algorithm and used multiple logistic regression models to identify independent predictors of early remission (beginning within first 2 months after surgery and lasting at least 12 months) or late remission (beginning more than 2 months after surgery and lasting at least 12 months). We assessed a final Cox regression model with a consistent subset of variables that predicted remission, and used the resulting hazard ratios (HRs) to guide creation of a weighting system to produce a score (DiaRem) to predict probability of diabetes remission within 5 years. We assessed the validity of the DiaRem score with data from two additional cohorts. Electronic medical records were available for 690 patients in the primary cohort, of whom 463 (63%) had achieved partial or complete remission. Four preoperative clinical variables were included in the final Cox regression model: insulin use, age, HbA1c concentration, and type of antidiabetic drugs. We developed a DiaRem score that ranges from 0 to 22, with the greatest weight given to insulin use before surgery (adding ten to the score; HR 5·90, 95% CI 4·41–7·90; p<0·0001). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that 88% (95% CI 83–92%) of patients who scored 0–2, 64% (58–71%) of those who scored 3–7, 23% (13–33%) of those who scored 8–12, 11% (6–16%) of those who scored 13–17, and 2% (0–5%) of those who scored 18–22 achieved early remission (partial or complete). As in the primary cohort, the proportion of patients achieving remission in the replication cohorts was highest for the lowest scores, and lowest for the highest scores. The DiaRem score is a novel preoperative method to predict the probability of remission of type 2 diabetes after RYGB surgery. Geisinger Health System and the US National Institutes of Health.
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              Interdisciplinary European Guidelines on Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery

              In 2012, an outstanding expert panel derived from IFSO-EC (International Federation for the Surgery of Obesity - European Chapter) and EASO (European Association for the Study of Obesity), composed by key representatives of both Societies including past and present presidents together with EASO's OMTF (Obesity Management Task Force) chair, agreed to devote the joint Medico-Surgical Workshop of both institutions to the topic of metabolic surgery as a pre-satellite of the 2013 European Congress on Obesity (ECO) to be held in Liverpool given the extraordinarily advancement made specifically in this field during the past years. It was further agreed to revise and update the 2008 Interdisciplinary European Guidelines on Surgery of Severe Obesity produced in cooperation of both Societies by focusing in particular on the evidence gathered in relation to the effects on diabetes during this lustrum and the subsequent changes that have taken place in patient eligibility criteria. The expert panel composition allowed the coverage of key disciplines in the comprehensive management of obesity and obesity-associated diseases, aimed specifically at updating the clinical guidelines to reflect current knowledge, expertise and evidence-based data on metabolic and bariatric surgery.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ann Surg Treat Res
                Ann Surg Treat Res
                ASTR
                Annals of Surgical Treatment and Research
                The Korean Surgical Society
                2288-6575
                2288-6796
                December 2019
                02 December 2019
                : 97
                : 6
                : 309-318
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
                [2 ]Center for Obesity and Metabolic Diseases, Korea University Anam Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
                [3 ]Department of Family Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
                [4 ]Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
                [5 ]Division of Foregut Surgery, Department of Surgery, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
                [6 ]Bariatric and Metabolic Institute, Section of Minimally Invasive Surgery, Cleveland Clinic Florida, Weston, FL, USA.
                Author notes
                Corresponding Author: Sungsoo Park. Division of Foregut Surgery, Department of Surgery, Korea University College of Medicine, 73 Goryeodae-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea. Tel: +82-2-920-6772, Fax: +82-2-928-1631, kugspss@ 123456korea.ac.kr

                *Jane Ha and Yeongkeun Kwon contributed equally to this study as co-first authors.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1779-8683
                Article
                10.4174/astr.2019.97.6.309
                6893221
                b3518303-c0f5-4718-be58-b5daa153c211
                Copyright © 2019, the Korean Surgical Society

                Annals of Surgical Treatment and Research is an Open Access Journal. All articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 02 July 2019
                : 22 October 2019
                : 31 October 2019
                Categories
                Original Article

                bariatric surgery,prognosis,scores,type 2 diabetes mellitus

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