Nonadiabatic effects that arise from the concerted motion of electrons and nuclei at comparable energy and time scales are omnipresent in metals and have been shown to affect measurable observables in thermal and light-driven chemistry at surfaces. Vibrational state-to-state scattering of NO on Au(111) has been one of the most studied examples in this regard, providing a testing ground for developing various nonadiabatic theories, including electronic friction theory. This system is often cited as the prime example for the breakdown of electronic friction theory, a very efficient model accounting for dissipative forces on metal-adsorbed molecules due to the creation of electron-hole-pair excitations in the metal. However, the exact failings compared to experiment and their origin from theory are less clear. Here we present a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the performance of molecular dynamics with electronic friction (MDEF) in describing vibrational state-to-state scattering of NO on Au(111) and connect directly to fundamental approximations. While MDEF accurately predicts elastic and single-quantum energy loss, we identify an underestimation of multi-quantum energy loss and an overestimation of molecular trapping at high vibrational excitation as the main limitations. We discuss the underestimation of multi-quantum energy loss and its potential remedy in connection to the Markov approximation within MDEF. An analysis of the overestimation of trapping leads to the conclusion that this failure constitutes a true breakdown of electronic friction theory, the correct account of which requires theories that go beyond MDEF. Our analysis provides a firm base line for the future development of nonadiabatic dynamics methods to tackle problems in surface chemistry and photocatalysis.