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      Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling

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      , ,
      Scientific Reports
      Nature Publishing Group UK
      Computational science, Epidemiology

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          Abstract

          The COVID-19 pandemic led authorities all over the world to imposing travel restrictions both on a national and on an international scale. Understanding the effect of such restrictions requires analysis of the role of commuting and calls for a metapopulation modeling that incorporates both local, intra-community infection and population exchange between different locations. Standard metapopulation models are formulated as markovian processes, and as such they do not label individuals according to their original location. However, commuting from home to work and backwards (reverse commuting) is the main pattern of transportation. Thus, it is important to be able to accurately model the effect of commuting on epidemic spreading. In this study we develop a methodology for modeling bidirectional commuting of individuals, without keeping track of each individual separately and with no need of proliferation of number of compartments beyond those defined by the epidemiologic model. We demonstrate the method using a city map of the state of Israel. The presented algorithm does not require any special computation resources and it may serve as a basis for intervention strategy examination in various levels of complication and resolution. We show how to incorporate an epidemiological model into a metapopulation commuting scheme while preserving the internal logic of the epidemiological modeling. The method is general and independent on the details of the epidemiological model under consideration.

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          Most cited references15

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          A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics

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            The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases

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              Epidemic processes in complex networks

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Eliezerli@soreq.gov.il
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                26 July 2021
                26 July 2021
                2021
                : 11
                : 15198
                Affiliations
                GRID grid.419373.b, ISNI 0000 0001 2230 3545, Soreq Nuclear Research Center, ; Yavne, 81800 Israel
                Article
                94672
                10.1038/s41598-021-94672-w
                8313540
                34312464
                b425e232-306e-4e08-99a5-6f685dcc28ab
                © The Author(s) 2021

                Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 1 February 2021
                : 12 July 2021
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                © The Author(s) 2021

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                computational science,epidemiology
                Uncategorized
                computational science, epidemiology

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