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Abstract
This paper examines the interplay of the effect of cross immunity and antibody-dependent
enhancement (ADE) in mutistrain diseases. Motivated by dengue fever, we study a model
for the spreading of epidemics in a population with multistrain interactions mediated
by both partial temporary cross immunity and ADE. Although ADE models have previously
been observed to cause chaotic outbreaks, we show analytically that weak cross immunity
has a stabilizing effect on the system. That is, the onset of disease fluctuations
requires a larger value of ADE with small cross immunity than without. However, strong
cross immunity is shown numerically to cause oscillations and chaotic outbreaks even
for low values of ADE.