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      Modeling the Invasion of the Large Hive Beetle, Oplostomus fuligineus, into North Africa and South Europe under a Changing Climate

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          Abstract

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          Large Hive Beetles (LHBs) are common pests of honeybee colonies, especially in the African continent. The ability of this pest to invade new regions in North Africa and Europe is highlighted in the present study using a species distribution modeling technique in current and future climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070. In brief, this pest will be a new burden on the beekeeping sector outside Africa, and therefore the development of early monitoring strategies is recommended.

          Abstract

          Some beetle species can attack honeybee colonies, causing severe damage to beekeeping. These pests include Oplostomus fuligineus, which is also known as the Large Hive Beetle (LHB). This beetle is native to Sub-Saharan Africa and has recently also been recorded in some parts of North Africa. It feeds mainly on young bee larvae and stored food within the colonies, causing severe damage to weak colonies. The present work sheds light on the current and future distribution (from 2050 to 2070) of this beetle in Africa and South Europe using species distribution modeling. Maxent was used to model the invasion of LHB. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585 were used to model the future distribution of LHB. The Maxent models showed satisfactory results with a high Area Under Curve (AUC) value (0.85 ± 0.02). Furthermore, the True Skill Statistics (TSS) value was equal to 0.87. The current and future maps showed a high risk of invasion because of temperature variation in most of the parts of North Africa and South Europe. The maps also predicted the future invasion of LHB into other countries, mainly through southern Europe. These predictive risk maps will help quarantine authorities in highly relevant countries to prevent the expansion of this pest outside of its natural range.

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          Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas

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            Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species.

            Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.
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              Importance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops.

              The extent of our reliance on animal pollination for world crop production for human food has not previously been evaluated and the previous estimates for countries or continents have seldom used primary data. In this review, we expand the previous estimates using novel primary data from 200 countries and found that fruit, vegetable or seed production from 87 of the leading global food crops is dependent upon animal pollination, while 28 crops do not rely upon animal pollination. However, global production volumes give a contrasting perspective, since 60% of global production comes from crops that do not depend on animal pollination, 35% from crops that depend on pollinators, and 5% are unevaluated. Using all crops traded on the world market and setting aside crops that are solely passively self-pollinated, wind-pollinated or parthenocarpic, we then evaluated the level of dependence on animal-mediated pollination for crops that are directly consumed by humans. We found that pollinators are essential for 13 crops, production is highly pollinator dependent for 30, moderately for 27, slightly for 21, unimportant for 7, and is of unknown significance for the remaining 9. We further evaluated whether local and landscape-wide management for natural pollination services could help to sustain crop diversity and production. Case studies for nine crops on four continents revealed that agricultural intensification jeopardizes wild bee communities and their stabilizing effect on pollination services at the landscape scale.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Academic Editor
                Role: Academic Editor
                Journal
                Insects
                Insects
                insects
                Insects
                MDPI
                2075-4450
                24 March 2021
                April 2021
                : 12
                : 4
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, Damanhour University, Damanhour 22516, Egypt; hossam.farag@ 123456agr.dmu.edu.eg
                [2 ]Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, Egypt; sara_alashaal@ 123456sci.asu.edu.eg (S.A.A.); mgnasser@ 123456sci.asu.edu.eg (M.G.N.)
                [3 ]Department of Botany, Hindu College Moradabad, MJP Rohilkhand University Bareilly, Bareilly 244001, India; mjavedansari@ 123456gmail.com
                [4 ]Department of Botany & Microbiology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh P.O. Box 2455, Saudi Arabia; sharbi@ 123456ksu.edu.sa
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence: iobek@ 123456sci.asu.edu.eg
                Article
                insects-12-00275
                10.3390/insects12040275
                8063819
                33804941
                © 2021 by the authors.

                Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

                Categories
                Article

                climate change, invasion, pest, beekeeping, maxent, lhb

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