A prospective study was conducted to compare criterion, predictive, and construct validities of 9 fracture/osteoporosis assessment tools, including calcaneal quantitative ultrasonography (QUS), Age Bulk One or Never Estrogens (ABONE), body weight criterion (BWC), Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), Garvan fracture risk calculator (GARVAN), Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), Osteoporosis Index of Risk (OSIRIS), Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), and Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE), among older men and women in Taiwan.
Using the femoral neck dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) T-score as an external criterion, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for each tool were calculated. The ability of these tools to predict injurious falls was examined. A principal component analysis was applied to understand whether these tools were measuring the same underlying construct.
The FRAX, BWC, ORAI, OSIRIS, OSTA, and SCORE had AUCs of ≥0.8 in men, while the GARVAN, OSIRIS, OSTA, and SCORE had AUCs of ≥0.8 in women. The sensitivity, negative predictive value, and likelihood ratio of the ABONE, BWC, ORAI, OSIRIS, OSTA, and SCORE tools in both men and women were 100%, ≥90%, and 0.0, respectively; the specificity and positive predictive value and likelihood ratio were far from satisfactory. The GARVAN displayed the best predictive ability of a fall in both men (AUCs, 0.653–0.686) and women (AUCs, 0.560–0.567), despite being smaller in women. The 9 screening tools and 2 central DXA measurements assessed 5 different factors, while the ABONE, BWC, ORAI, OSIRIS, OSTA, and SCORE measured the same one.
Simple self-assessment tools can serve as initial screening instruments to rule out persons who have osteoporosis; however, these tools may measure a different construct other than fracture/osteoporosis risk.