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      Investigating the fatal pedestrian crash occurrence in urban setup in a developing country using multiple-risk source model

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          Abstract

          Pedestrian fatalities and injuries are a major public health burden in developing countries. In the safety literature, pedestrian crashes have been modelled predominately using single equation regression models, assuming a single underlying source of risk factors. In contrast, the fatal pedestrian crash counts at a site may be an outcome of multiple sources of risk factors, such as poor road infrastructure, land use type, traffic exposures, and operational parameters, site-specific socio-demographic characteristics, as well as pedestrians’ poor risk perception and dangerous crossing behavior, which may be influenced by poor road infrastructure and lack of information, etc. However, these multiple sources are generally overlooked in traditional single equation crash prediction models.

          In this background, this study postulates, and demonstrates empirically, that the total fatal pedestrian crash counts at the urban road network level may arise from multiple simultaneous and interdependent sources of risk factors, rather than one. Each of these sources may distinctively contribute to the total observed crash count.

          Intersection-level crash data obtained from the “Kolkata Police”, India, is utilized to demonstrate the present modelling methodology. The three-components mixture model and a joint econometric model are developed to predict fatal pedestrian crashes. The study outcomes indicate that the multiple-source risk models perform significantly better than the single equation regression model in terms of prediction ability and goodness-of-fit measures. Moreover, while the single equation model predicts total fatal crash counts for individual sites, the multiple risk source model predicts crash count proportions contributed by each source of risk factors and predicts crashes by a particular source.

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          Most cited references81

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          The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives

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            The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives

            Reducing the severity of injuries resulting from motor-vehicle crashes has long been a primary emphasis of highway agencies and motor-vehicle manufacturers. While progress can be simply measured by the reduction in injury levels over time, insights into the effectiveness of injury-reduction technologies, policies, and regulations require a more detailed empirical assessment of the complex interactions that vehicle, roadway, and human factors have on resulting crash-injury severities. Over the years, researchers have used a wide range of methodological tools to assess the impact of such factors on disaggregate-level injury-severity data, and recent methodological advances have enabled the development of sophisticated models capable of more precisely determining the influence of these factors. This paper summarizes the evolution of research and current thinking as it relates to the statistical analysis of motor-vehicle injury severities, and provides a discussion of future methodological directions.
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              Road traffic injuries in developing countries: a comprehensive review of epidemiological studies.

              Motor vehicle accidents are the leading cause of death in adolescents and young adults worldwide. Nearly three-quarters of road deaths occur in developing countries and men comprise a mean 80% of casualties. This review summarizes studies on the epidemiology of motor vehicle accidents in developing countries and examines the evidence for association with alcohol.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Accid Anal Prev
                Accid Anal Prev
                Accident; Analysis and Prevention
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0001-4575
                1879-2057
                10 November 2021
                December 2021
                10 November 2021
                : 163
                : 106469
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur - 721302, West Bengal, India
                [b ]Global Road Safety Facility, The World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, USA
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                S0001-4575(21)00500-5 106469
                10.1016/j.aap.2021.106469
                9336202
                34773787
                b78df63c-fd6d-42ea-b852-c0211e7e1ce8
                © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 22 March 2021
                : 21 August 2021
                : 1 November 2021
                Categories
                Article

                Emergency medicine & Trauma
                pedestrian fatality,risk factors,developing country,behavior and perception

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