COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Lombardy, Italy: an ecological study on the role of air pollution, meteorological factors, demographic and socioeconomic variables

Abstract

Lombardy, the most populated and industrialized Italian region, was the epicentre of the first wave (March and April, 2020) of COVID-19 in Italy and it is among the most air polluted areas of Europe. We carried out an ecological study to assess the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO ₂) on COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality after accounting for demographic, socioeconomic and meteorological variables.

The study was based on publicly available data. Multivariable negative binomial mixed regression models were fitted, and results were reported in terms of incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMR). The effect of winter temperature and humidity was modelled through restricted cubic spline.

Data from 1,439 municipalities out of 1,507 (95%) were included in the analyses, leading to a total of 61,377 COVID-19 cases and 40,401 deaths from all-causes collected from February 20 ^th to April 16 ^th and from March 1 ^st to April 30 ^th, 2020, respectively. Several demographic and socioeconomic variables resulted significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality in a multivariable fashion. An increase in average winter temperature was associated with a nonlinear decrease in COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality, while an opposite trend emerged for the absolute humidity. An increase of 10 μg/m ³ in the mean annual concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 over the previous years was associated with a 58% and 34% increase in COVID-19 incidence rate, respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m ³ increase of annual mean PM2.5 concentration was associated with a 23% increase in all-cause mortality. An inverse association was found between NO ₂ levels and COVID-19 incidence and all-cause mortality.

Our ecological study showed that exposure to PM was significantly associated with the COVID-19 incidence and excess mortality during the first wave of the outbreak in Lombardy, Italy.

Highlights

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  Lombardy is an industrialized region with one of the worst air quality in Europe.

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  Lombardy was the epicentre of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

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  Long-term exposure to PM was associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality.

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  Meteorological variables were associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality.

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  Socioeconomic variables were associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality.