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      Predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in type 2 diabetes: Diabetes Heart Study

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          Abstract

          Background

          Many studies evaluated the best predictors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but few studies examined the factors most strongly associated with mortality in T2D. The Diabetes Heart Study (DHS), an intensively phenotyped family-based cohort enriched for T2D, provided an opportunity to address this question.

          Methods

          Associations with mortality were examined in 1022 European Americans affected by T2D from 476 DHS families. All-cause mortality was 31.2 % over an average 9.6 years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models with sandwich-based variance estimation were used to evaluate associations between all-cause and CVD mortality and 24 demographic and clinical factors, including coronary artery calcified plaque (CAC), carotid artery intima-media thickness, medications, body mass index, waist hip ratio, lipids, blood pressure, kidney function, QT interval, educational attainment, and glycemic control. Nominally significant factors ( p < 0.25) from univariate analyses were included in model selection (backward elimination, forward selection, and stepwise selection). Age and sex were included in all models.

          Results

          The all-cause mortality model selected from the full DHS sample included age, sex, CAC, urine albumin: creatinine ratio (UACR), insulin use, current smoking, and educational attainment. The CVD mortality model selected from the full sample included age, sex, CAC, UACR, triglycerides, and history of CVD events. Beyond age, the most significant associations for both mortality models were CAC (2.03 × 10 −4 ≤  p ≤ 0.001) and UACR (1.99 × 10 −8 ≤  p ≤ 2.23 × 10 −8). To confirm the validity of the main predictors identified with model selection using the full sample, a two-fold cross-validation approach was used, and similar results were observed.

          Conclusions

          This analysis highlights important demographic and clinical factors, notably CAC and albuminuria, which predict mortality in the general population of patients with T2D.

          Electronic supplementary material

          The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13098-015-0055-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Most cited references23

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          Coronary calcium as a predictor of coronary events in four racial or ethnic groups.

          In white populations, computed tomographic measurements of coronary-artery calcium predict coronary heart disease independently of traditional coronary risk factors. However, it is not known whether coronary-artery calcium predicts coronary heart disease in other racial or ethnic groups. We collected data on risk factors and performed scanning for coronary calcium in a population-based sample of 6722 men and women, of whom 38.6% were white, 27.6% were black, 21.9% were Hispanic, and 11.9% were Chinese. The study subjects had no clinical cardiovascular disease at entry and were followed for a median of 3.8 years. There were 162 coronary events, of which 89 were major events (myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease). In comparison with participants with no coronary calcium, the adjusted risk of a coronary event was increased by a factor of 7.73 among participants with coronary calcium scores between 101 and 300 and by a factor of 9.67 among participants with scores above 300 (P<0.001 for both comparisons). Among the four racial and ethnic groups, a doubling of the calcium score increased the risk of a major coronary event by 15 to 35% and the risk of any coronary event by 18 to 39%. The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves for the prediction of both major coronary events and any coronary event were higher when the calcium score was added to the standard risk factors. The coronary calcium score is a strong predictor of incident coronary heart disease and provides predictive information beyond that provided by standard risk factors in four major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. No major differences among racial and ethnic groups in the predictive value of calcium scores were detected. Copyright 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society.
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            Associations of kidney disease measures with mortality and end-stage renal disease in individuals with and without diabetes: a meta-analysis.

            Chronic kidney disease is characterised by low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and high albuminuria, and is associated with adverse outcomes. Whether these risks are modified by diabetes is unknown. We did a meta-analysis of studies selected according to Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium criteria. Data transfer and analyses were done between March, 2011, and June, 2012. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) associated with eGFR and albuminuria in individuals with and without diabetes. We analysed data for 1,024,977 participants (128,505 with diabetes) from 30 general population and high-risk cardiovascular cohorts and 13 chronic kidney disease cohorts. In the combined general population and high-risk cohorts with data for all-cause mortality, 75,306 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up of 8·5 years (SD 5·0). In the 23 studies with data for cardiovascular mortality, 21,237 deaths occurred from cardiovascular disease during a mean follow-up of 9·2 years (SD 4·9). In the general and high-risk cohorts, mortality risks were 1·2-1·9 times higher for participants with diabetes than for those without diabetes across the ranges of eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). With fixed eGFR and ACR reference points in the diabetes and no diabetes groups, HR of mortality outcomes according to lower eGFR and higher ACR were much the same in participants with and without diabetes (eg, for all-cause mortality at eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m(2) [vs 95 mL/min per 1·73 m(2)], HR 1·35; 95% CI 1·18-1·55; vs 1·33; 1·19-1·48 and at ACR 30 mg/g [vs 5 mg/g], 1·50; 1·35-1·65 vs 1·52; 1·38-1·67). The overall interactions were not significant. We identified much the same findings for ESRD in the chronic kidney disease cohorts. Despite higher risks for mortality and ESRD in diabetes, the relative risks of these outcomes by eGFR and ACR are much the same irrespective of the presence or absence of diabetes, emphasising the importance of kidney disease as a predictor of clinical outcomes. US National Kidney Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              Calcified coronary artery plaque measurement with cardiac CT in population-based studies: standardized protocol of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

              Calcified coronary artery plaque, measured at cardiac computed tomography (CT), is a predictor of cardiovascular disease and may play an increasing role in cardiovascular disease risk assessment. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute are population-based studies in which calcified coronary artery plaque was measured with electron-beam and multi-detector row CT and a standardized protocol in 6814 (MESA) and 3044 (CARDIA study) participants. The studies were approved by the appropriate institutional review board from the study site or agency, and written informed consent was obtained from each participant. Participation in the CT examination was high, image quality was good, and agreement for the presence of calcified plaque was high (kappa = 0.92, MESA; kappa = 0.77, CARDIA study). Extremely high agreement was observed between and within CT image analysts for the presence (kappa > 0.90, all) and amount (intraclass correlation coefficients, >0.99) of calcified plaque. Measurement of calcified coronary artery plaque with cardiac CT is well accepted by participants and can be implemented with consistently high-quality results with a standardized protocol and trained personnel. If predictive value of calcified coronary artery plaque for cardiovascular events proves sufficient to justify screening a segment of the population, then a standardized cardiac CT protocol is feasible and will provide reproducible results for health care providers and the public. (c) RSNA, 2005.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                lraffiel@wakehealth.edu
                fhsu@wakehealth.edu
                a.cox@griffith.edu.au
                j.jeffrey.carr@vanderbilt.edu
                bfreedma@wakehealth.edu
                +1 336-713-7507 , dbowden@wakehealth.edu
                Journal
                Diabetol Metab Syndr
                Diabetol Metab Syndr
                Diabetology & Metabolic Syndrome
                BioMed Central (London )
                1758-5996
                28 June 2015
                28 June 2015
                2015
                : 7
                : 58
                Affiliations
                [ ]Molecular Genetics and Genomics Program, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC USA
                [ ]Center for Human Genomics, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC USA
                [ ]Center for Diabetes Research, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC USA
                [ ]Department of Biostatistical Sciences, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC USA
                [ ]Department of Biochemistry, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC USA
                [ ]Department of Radiology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN USA
                [ ]Department of Internal Medicine - Nephrology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC USA
                [ ]Center for Genomics and Personalized Medicine Research, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Medical Center Boulevard, Winston-Salem, NC 27157 USA
                Article
                55
                10.1186/s13098-015-0055-y
                4490739
                b8de5f1a-3cfb-489f-b69b-ad5ee8ce4e72
                © Raffield et al. 2015

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 19 March 2015
                : 18 June 2015
                Categories
                Research
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2015

                Nutrition & Dietetics
                type 2 diabetes,mortality,coronary artery calcified plaque,urine albumin:creatinine ratio

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