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      Observed Spatiotemporal Changes in the Mechanisms of Extreme Water Available for Runoff in the Western United States

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          Nonparametric Tests Against Trend

           Henry Mann (1945)
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            Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau

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              Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

              All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Geophysical Research Letters
                Geophys. Res. Lett.
                American Geophysical Union (AGU)
                00948276
                January 28 2019
                January 28 2019
                January 24 2019
                : 46
                : 2
                : 767-775
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Energy and Environment Directorate; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland WA USA
                [2 ]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; University of Washington; Seattle WA USA
                [3 ]Earth and Biological Sciences Directorate; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Richland WA USA
                10.1029/2018GL080260
                © 2019

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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