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      The impact of preventive measures on the burden of femoral fractures – a modelling approach to estimating the impact of fall prevention exercises and oral bisphosphonate treatment for the years 2014 and 2025

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          Abstract

          Background

          Due to the demographic transition with a growing number of old and oldest-old persons the absolute number of fragility fractures is expected to increase in industrialized countries unless effective preventive efforts are intensified. The main causes leading to fractures are osteoporosis and falls. The aim of this study is to develop population based models of the potential impact of fall-prevention exercise and oral bisphosphonates over the coming decade.

          Methods

          The German federal state of Bavaria served as the model population.

          Model interventions were limited to community-dwelling persons aged 65 years and older. Models are based on fall-prevention exercise being offered to all persons aged 70 to 89 years and oral bisphosphonate treatment offered to all persons with osteoporosis as defined by a T-score of ≤ − 2.5. Treatment effect sizes are estimated from meta-analyses. Reduction in all femoral fractures in the population of community-dwelling persons aged 65 years and older is the outcome of interest. A spreadsheet-based modelling approach was used for prediction.

          Results

          In 2014, reduction of femoral fractures by 10 % required 21 % of all community-dwelling persons aged 70–89 to participate in fall-prevention exercise, or 37 % of those with osteoporosis to receive oral bisphosphonates. Without intervention, demographic changes will result in a 24 % increase in femoral fractures by 2025. To lower the increase of fractures between 2014 and 2025 to 10 %, fall-prevention-exercise participation rate needs to be 25 % and bisphosphonate treatment rates 41 %, whereas to hold the 2025 rates flat at 2014 rates require 43 % fall-prevention-exercises participation, and is not achievable using oral bisphosphonates.

          Conclusions

          Unrealistic high treatment and participation rates of the two analysed measures are needed to achieve substantial effects on the expected burden of femoral fractures at present and in the future.

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          Most cited references 24

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          Risk factors for falls among elderly persons living in the community.

          To study risk factors for falling, we conducted a one-year prospective investigation, using a sample of 336 persons at least 75 years of age who were living in the community. All subjects underwent detailed clinical evaluation, including standardized measures of mental status, strength, reflexes, balance, and gait; in addition, we inspected their homes for environmental hazards. Falls and their circumstances were identified during bimonthly telephone calls. During one year of follow-up, 108 subjects (32 percent) fell at least once; 24 percent of those who fell had serious injuries and 6 percent had fractures. Predisposing factors for falls were identified in linear-logistic models. The adjusted odds ratio for sedative use was 28.3; for cognitive impairment, 5.0; for disability of the lower extremities, 3.8; for palmomental reflex, 3.0; for abnormalities of balance and gait, 1.9; and for foot problems, 1.8; the lower bounds of the 95 percent confidence intervals were 1 or more for all variables. The risk of falling increased linearly with the number of risk factors, from 8 percent with none to 78 percent with four or more risk factors (P less than 0.0001). About 10 percent of the falls occurred during acute illness, 5 percent during hazardous activity, and 44 percent in the presence of environmental hazards. We conclude that falls among older persons living in the community are common and that a simple clinical assessment can identify the elderly persons who are at the greatest risk of falling.
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            Incidence and economic burden of osteoporosis-related fractures in the United States, 2005-2025.

            This study predicts the burden of incident osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in the United States, by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and fracture type, from 2005 to 2025. Total fractures were >2 million, costing nearly $17 billion in 2005. Men account for >25% of the burden. Rapid growth in the disease burden is projected among nonwhite populations. The aging of the U.S. population will likely lead to greater prevalence of osteoporosis. Policy makers require precise projections of the disease burden by demographic subgroups and skeletal sites to effectively target osteoporosis intervention and treatment programs. A state transition Markov decision model was used to estimate total incident fractures and costs by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and skeletal site for the U.S. population 50 years of age for 2005-2025. More than 2 million incident fractures at a cost of $17 billion are predicted for 2005. Total costs including prevalent fractures are more than $19 billion. Men account for 29% of fractures and 25% of costs. Total incident fractures by skeletal site were vertebral (27%), wrist (19%), hip (14%), pelvic (7%), and other (33%). Total costs by fracture type were vertebral (6%), hip (72%), wrist (3%), pelvic (5%), and other (14%). By 2025, annual fractures and costs are projected to rise by almost 50%. The most rapid growth is estimated for people 65-74 years of age, with an increase>87%. An increase of nearly 175% is projected for Hispanic and other subpopulations. Osteoporosis prevention, treatment, and education efforts should address all skeletal sites, not just hip and vertebral, and appropriate attention is warranted for men and diverse race/ethnicity subgroups.
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              The diagnosis of osteoporosis.

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                ++49 711 81015852 , petra.benzinger@rbk.de
                Journal
                BMC Geriatr
                BMC Geriatr
                BMC Geriatrics
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2318
                1 April 2016
                1 April 2016
                2016
                : 16
                Affiliations
                [ ]Department of Clinical Gerontology, Robert Bosch Krankenhaus, Auerbachstrasse 110, 70376 Stuttgart, Germany
                [ ]School of Nursing, Midwifery & Social Work and Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, The University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL UK
                [ ]Department of Health Economics and Health Services Research, Hamburg Centre for Health Economics, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, 20246 Hamburg, Germany
                [ ]Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Helmholzstrasse 22, 89081 Ulm, Germany
                Article
                247
                10.1186/s12877-016-0247-9
                4818493
                27038629
                © Benzinger et al. 2016

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004937, Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie (DE);
                Award ID: 01EC1007A
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781, European Research Council (BE);
                Award ID: 325087
                Award Recipient :
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2016

                Geriatric medicine

                femoral fractures, prevention, epidemiology, osteoporosis, falls

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