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Abstract
Many decisions involve uncertainty, or imperfect knowledge about how choices lead
to outcomes. Colloquial notions of uncertainty, particularly when describing a decision
as 'risky', often carry connotations of potential danger as well. Gambling on a long
shot, whether a horse at the racetrack or a foreign oil company in a hedge fund, can
have negative consequences, but the impact of uncertainty on decision making extends
beyond gambling. Indeed, uncertainty in some form pervades nearly all our choices
in daily life. Stepping into traffic to hail a cab, braving an ice storm to be the
first at work, or dating the boss's son or daughter also offer potentially great windfalls,
at the expense of surety. We continually face trade-offs between options that promise
safety and others that offer an uncertain potential for jackpot or bust. When mechanisms
for dealing with uncertain outcomes fail, as in mental disorders such as problem gambling
or addiction, the results can be disastrous. Thus, understanding decision making-indeed,
understanding behavior itself-requires knowing how the brain responds to and uses
information about uncertainty.