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      A Gene-Expression Signature as a Predictor of Survival in Breast Cancer

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          Abstract

          A more accurate means of prognostication in breast cancer will improve the selection of patients for adjuvant systemic therapy. Using microarray analysis to evaluate our previously established 70-gene prognosis profile, we classified a series of 295 consecutive patients with primary breast carcinomas as having a gene-expression signature associated with either a poor prognosis or a good prognosis. All patients had stage I or II breast cancer and were younger than 53 years old; 151 had lymph-node-negative disease, and 144 had lymph-node-positive disease. We evaluated the predictive power of the prognosis profile using univariable and multivariable statistical analyses. Among the 295 patients, 180 had a poor-prognosis signature and 115 had a good-prognosis signature, and the mean (+/-SE) overall 10-year survival rates were 54.6+/-4.4 percent and 94.5+/-2.6 percent, respectively. At 10 years, the probability of remaining free of distant metastases was 50.6+/-4.5 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 85.2+/-4.3 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature. The estimated hazard ratio for distant metastases in the group with a poor-prognosis signature, as compared with the group with the good-prognosis signature, was 5.1 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.9 to 9.0; P<0.001). This ratio remained significant when the groups were analyzed according to lymph-node status. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that the prognosis profile was a strong independent factor in predicting disease outcome. The gene-expression profile we studied is a more powerful predictor of the outcome of disease in young patients with breast cancer than standard systems based on clinical and histologic criteria. Copyright 2002 Massachusetts Medical Society

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          Most cited references9

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          Expression profiling using microarrays fabricated by an ink-jet oligonucleotide synthesizer.

          We describe a flexible system for gene expression profiling using arrays of tens of thousands of oligonucleotides synthesized in situ by an ink-jet printing method employing standard phosphoramidite chemistry. We have characterized the dependence of hybridization specificity and sensitivity on parameters including oligonucleotide length, hybridization stringency, sequence identity, sample abundance, and sample preparation method. We find that 60-mer oligonucleotides reliably detect transcript ratios at one copy per cell in complex biological samples, and that ink-jet arrays are compatible with several different sample amplification and labeling techniques. Furthermore, results using only a single carefully selected oligonucleotide per gene correlate closely with those obtained using complementary DNA (cDNA) arrays. Most of the genes for which measurements differ are members of gene families that can only be distinguished by oligonucleotides. Because different oligonucleotide sequences can be specified for each array, we anticipate that ink-jet oligonucleotide array technology will be useful in a wide variety of DNA microarray applications.
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            Predicting the clinical status of human breast cancer by using gene expression profiles.

            Prognostic and predictive factors are indispensable tools in the treatment of patients with neoplastic disease. For the most part, such factors rely on a few specific cell surface, histological, or gross pathologic features. Gene expression assays have the potential to supplement what were previously a few distinct features with many thousands of features. We have developed Bayesian regression models that provide predictive capability based on gene expression data derived from DNA microarray analysis of a series of primary breast cancer samples. These patterns have the capacity to discriminate breast tumors on the basis of estrogen receptor status and also on the categorized lymph node status. Importantly, we assess the utility and validity of such models in predicting the status of tumors in crossvalidation determinations. The practical value of such approaches relies on the ability not only to assess relative probabilities of clinical outcomes for future samples but also to provide an honest assessment of the uncertainties associated with such predictive classifications on the basis of the selection of gene subsets for each validation analysis. This latter point is of critical importance in the ability to apply these methodologies to clinical assessment of tumor phenotype.
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              Gene-expression profiles in hereditary breast cancer.

              Many cases of hereditary breast cancer are due to mutations in either the BRCA1 or the BRCA2 gene. The histopathological changes in these cancers are often characteristic of the mutant gene. We hypothesized that the genes expressed by these two types of tumors are also distinctive, perhaps allowing us to identify cases of hereditary breast cancer on the basis of gene-expression profiles. RNA from samples of primary tumor from seven carriers of the BRCA1 mutation, seven carriers of the BRCA2 mutation, and seven patients with sporadic cases of breast cancer was compared with a microarray of 6512 complementary DNA clones of 5361 genes. Statistical analyses were used to identify a set of genes that could distinguish the BRCA1 genotype from the BRCA2 genotype. Permutation analysis of multivariate classification functions established that the gene-expression profiles of tumors with BRCA1 mutations, tumors with BRCA2 mutations, and sporadic tumors differed significantly from each other. An analysis of variance between the levels of gene expression and the genotype of the samples identified 176 genes that were differentially expressed in tumors with BRCA1 mutations and tumors with BRCA2 mutations. Given the known properties of some of the genes in this panel, our findings indicate that there are functional differences between breast tumors with BRCA1 mutations and those with BRCA2 mutations. Significantly different groups of genes are expressed by breast cancers with BRCA1 mutations and breast cancers with BRCA2 mutations. Our results suggest that a heritable mutation influences the gene-expression profile of the cancer.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                New England Journal of Medicine
                N Engl J Med
                Massachusetts Medical Society
                0028-4793
                1533-4406
                December 19 2002
                December 19 2002
                : 347
                : 25
                : 1999-2009
                Article
                10.1056/NEJMoa021967
                12490681
                bc305b06-9fb5-4659-9c31-a3332c29bc10
                © 2002
                History

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