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      The Saturniidae of Barro Colorado Island, Panama: A model taxon for studying the long‐term effects of climate change?

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          Abstract

          We have little knowledge of the response of invertebrate assemblages to climate change in tropical ecosystems, and few studies have compiled long‐term data on invertebrates from tropical rainforests. We provide an updated list of the 72 species of Saturniidae moths collected on Barro Colorado Island ( BCI), Panama, during the period 1958‐2016. This list will serve as baseline data for assessing long‐term changes of saturniids on BCI in the future, as 81% of the species can be identified by their unique DNA Barcode Index Number, including four cryptic species not yet formally described. A local species pool of 60 + species breeding on BCI appears plausible, but more cryptic species may be discovered in the future. We use monitoring data obtained by light trapping to analyze recent population trends on BCI for saturniid species that were relatively common during 2009‐2016, a period representing >30 saturniid generations. The abundances of 11 species, of 14 tested, could be fitted to significant time‐series models. While the direction of change in abundance was uncertain for most species, two species showed a significant increase over time, and forecast models also suggested continuing increases for most species during 2017‐2018, as compared to the 2009 base year. Peaks in saturniid abundance were most conspicuous during El Niño and La Niña years. In addition to a species‐specific approach, we propose a reproducible functional classification based on five functional traits to analyze the responses of species sharing similar functional attributes in a fluctuating climate. Our results suggest that the abundances of larger body‐size species with good dispersal abilities may increase concomitantly with rising air temperature in the future, because short‐lived adults may allocate less time to increasing body temperature for flight, leaving more time available for searching for mating partners or suitable oviposition sites.

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          Most cited references 63

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          Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.

          The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.
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            A DNA-Based Registry for All Animal Species: The Barcode Index Number (BIN) System

            Because many animal species are undescribed, and because the identification of known species is often difficult, interim taxonomic nomenclature has often been used in biodiversity analysis. By assigning individuals to presumptive species, called operational taxonomic units (OTUs), these systems speed investigations into the patterning of biodiversity and enable studies that would otherwise be impossible. Although OTUs have conventionally been separated through their morphological divergence, DNA-based delineations are not only feasible, but have important advantages. OTU designation can be automated, data can be readily archived, and results can be easily compared among investigations. This study exploits these attributes to develop a persistent, species-level taxonomic registry for the animal kingdom based on the analysis of patterns of nucleotide variation in the barcode region of the cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene. It begins by examining the correspondence between groups of specimens identified to a species through prior taxonomic work and those inferred from the analysis of COI sequence variation using one new (RESL) and four established (ABGD, CROP, GMYC, jMOTU) algorithms. It subsequently describes the implementation, and structural attributes of the Barcode Index Number (BIN) system. Aside from a pragmatic role in biodiversity assessments, BINs will aid revisionary taxonomy by flagging possible cases of synonymy, and by collating geographical information, descriptive metadata, and images for specimens that are likely to belong to the same species, even if it is undescribed. More than 274,000 BIN web pages are now available, creating a biodiversity resource that is positioned for rapid growth.
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              Comparative losses of British butterflies, birds, and plants and the global extinction crisis.

              There is growing concern about increased population, regional, and global extinctions of species. A key question is whether extinction rates for one group of organisms are representative of other taxa. We present a comparison at the national scale of population and regional extinctions of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants from Britain in recent decades. Butterflies experienced the greatest net losses, disappearing on average from 13% of their previously occupied 10-kilometer squares. If insects elsewhere in the world are similarly sensitive, the known global extinction rates of vertebrate and plant species have an unrecorded parallel among the invertebrates, strengthening the hypothesis that the natural world is experiencing the sixth major extinction event in its history.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                bassety@si.edu
                Journal
                Ecol Evol
                Ecol Evol
                10.1002/(ISSN)2045-7758
                ECE3
                Ecology and Evolution
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2045-7758
                22 October 2017
                December 2017
                : 7
                : 23 ( doiID: 10.1002/ece3.2017.7.issue-23 )
                : 9991-10004
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Ancon Panamá
                [ 2 ] Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic
                [ 3 ] Maestria de Entomologia Universidad de Panamá Panama City Panama
                [ 4 ] Institute of Entomology, Biology Centre Czech Academy of Science Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic
                [ 5 ] Institute of Evolutionary Biology University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
                [ 6 ] Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive UMR 5175, CNRS–Université Montpellier–Univesrsité Paul‐Valéry–EPHE–SupAgroMontpellier–INRA–IRD Montpellier France
                [ 7 ] Institut de Systématique Evolution, Biodiversité UMR 7205, CNRS–MNHN–UPMC–EPHE–Sorbonne Universités Paris France
                [ 8 ] National Museum of Natural History Smithsonian Institution Washington DC USA
                Author notes
                [* ] Correspondence

                Yves Basset, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado 0843‐03092, Balboa, Ancon, Panamá.

                Email: bassety@ 123456si.edu

                Article
                ECE33515
                10.1002/ece3.3515
                5723595
                © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Counts
                Figures: 5, Tables: 2, Pages: 14, Words: 11328
                Product
                Funding
                Funded by: Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
                Award ID: Sistema Nacional de Investigación
                Funded by: Smithsonian Institution Barcoding Opportunity
                Award ID: FY012
                Award ID: FY013
                Funded by: Czech Science foundation GAČR
                Award ID: 14‐36098G
                Funded by: European Research Council Grant
                Award ID: 669609
                Categories
                Original Research
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                ece33515
                December 2017
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.2.8 mode:remove_FC converted:10.12.2017

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