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Abstract
Recent studies document unprecedented declines in marine top predators that can initiate
trophic cascades. Predicting the wider ecological consequences of these declines requires
understanding how predators influence communities by inflicting mortality on prey
and inducing behavioral modifications (risk effects). Both mechanisms are important
in marine communities, and a sole focus on the effects of predator-inflicted mortality
might severely underestimate the importance of predators. We outline direct and indirect
consequences of marine predator declines and propose an integrated predictive framework
that includes risk effects, which appear to be strongest for long-lived prey species
and when resources are abundant. We conclude that marine predators should be managed
for the maintenance of both density- and risk-driven ecological processes, and not
demographic persistence alone.