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      Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease

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          Abstract

          Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are highly prevalent in the United States, where they are a growing cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and increasingly an indicator for liver transplantation. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease progression. Incidence of NAFLD was based on historical and projected changes in adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Assumptions were derived from published literature where available and validated using national surveillance data for incidence of NAFLD‐related HCC. Projected changes in NAFLD‐related cirrhosis, advanced liver disease, and liver‐related mortality were quantified through 2030. Prevalent NAFLD cases are forecasted to increase 21%, from 83.1 million (2015) to 100.9 million (2030), while prevalent NASH cases will increase 63% from 16.52 million to 27.00 million cases. Overall NAFLD prevalence among the adult population (aged ≥15 years) is projected at 33.5% in 2030, and the median age of the NAFLD population will increase from 50 to 55 years during 2015‐2030. In 2015, approximately 20% of NAFLD cases were classified as NASH, increasing to 27% by 2030, a reflection of both disease progression and an aging population. Incidence of decompensated cirrhosis will increase 168% to 105,430 cases by 2030, while incidence of HCC will increase by 137% to 12,240 cases. Liver deaths will increase 178% to an estimated 78,300 deaths in 2030. During 2015‐2030, there are projected to be nearly 800,000 excess liver deaths. Conclusion: With continued high rates of adult obesity and DM along with an aging population, NAFLD‐related liver disease and mortality will increase in the United States. Strategies to slow the growth of NAFLD cases and therapeutic options are necessary to mitigate disease burden. (H epatology 2018;67:123‐133).

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          Global epidemiology of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-Meta-analytic assessment of prevalence, incidence, and outcomes.

          Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major cause of liver disease worldwide. We estimated the global prevalence, incidence, progression, and outcomes of NAFLD and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). PubMed/MEDLINE were searched from 1989 to 2015 for terms involving epidemiology and progression of NAFLD. Exclusions included selected groups (studies that exclusively enrolled morbidly obese or diabetics or pediatric) and no data on alcohol consumption or other liver diseases. Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhosis, overall mortality, and liver-related mortality were determined. NASH required histological diagnosis. All studies were reviewed by three independent investigators. Analysis was stratified by region, diagnostic technique, biopsy indication, and study population. We used random-effects models to provide point estimates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of prevalence, incidence, mortality and incidence rate ratios, and metaregression with subgroup analysis to account for heterogeneity. Of 729 studies, 86 were included with a sample size of 8,515,431 from 22 countries. Global prevalence of NAFLD is 25.24% (95% CI: 22.10-28.65) with highest prevalence in the Middle East and South America and lowest in Africa. Metabolic comorbidities associated with NAFLD included obesity (51.34%; 95% CI: 41.38-61.20), type 2 diabetes (22.51%; 95% CI: 17.92-27.89), hyperlipidemia (69.16%; 95% CI: 49.91-83.46%), hypertension (39.34%; 95% CI: 33.15-45.88), and metabolic syndrome (42.54%; 95% CI: 30.06-56.05). Fibrosis progression proportion, and mean annual rate of progression in NASH were 40.76% (95% CI: 34.69-47.13) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.06-0.12). HCC incidence among NAFLD patients was 0.44 per 1,000 person-years (range, 0.29-0.66). Liver-specific mortality and overall mortality among NAFLD and NASH were 0.77 per 1,000 (range, 0.33-1.77) and 11.77 per 1,000 person-years (range, 7.10-19.53) and 15.44 per 1,000 (range, 11.72-20.34) and 25.56 per 1,000 person-years (range, 6.29-103.80). Incidence risk ratios for liver-specific and overall mortality for NAFLD were 1.94 (range, 1.28-2.92) and 1.05 (range, 0.70-1.56).
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            Design and validation of a histological scoring system for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

            Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is characterized by hepatic steatosis in the absence of a history of significant alcohol use or other known liver disease. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of NAFLD. The Pathology Committee of the NASH Clinical Research Network designed and validated a histological feature scoring system that addresses the full spectrum of lesions of NAFLD and proposed a NAFLD activity score (NAS) for use in clinical trials. The scoring system comprised 14 histological features, 4 of which were evaluated semi-quantitatively: steatosis (0-3), lobular inflammation (0-2), hepatocellular ballooning (0-2), and fibrosis (0-4). Another nine features were recorded as present or absent. An anonymized study set of 50 cases (32 from adult hepatology services, 18 from pediatric hepatology services) was assembled, coded, and circulated. For the validation study, agreement on scoring and a diagnostic categorization ("NASH," "borderline," or "not NASH") were evaluated by using weighted kappa statistics. Inter-rater agreement on adult cases was: 0.84 for fibrosis, 0.79 for steatosis, 0.56 for injury, and 0.45 for lobular inflammation. Agreement on diagnostic category was 0.61. Using multiple logistic regression, five features were independently associated with the diagnosis of NASH in adult biopsies: steatosis (P = .009), hepatocellular ballooning (P = .0001), lobular inflammation (P = .0001), fibrosis (P = .0001), and the absence of lipogranulomas (P = .001). The proposed NAS is the unweighted sum of steatosis, lobular inflammation, and hepatocellular ballooning scores. In conclusion, we present a strong scoring system and NAS for NAFLD and NASH with reasonable inter-rater reproducibility that should be useful for studies of both adults and children with any degree of NAFLD. NAS of > or =5 correlated with a diagnosis of NASH, and biopsies with scores of less than 3 were diagnosed as "not NASH."
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              NAFLD: a multisystem disease.

              Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease in Western countries that is predicted to become also the most frequent indication for liver transplantation by 2030. Over the last decade, it has been shown that the clinical burden of NAFLD is not only confined to liver-related morbidity and mortality, but there is now growing evidence that NAFLD is a multisystem disease, affecting extra-hepatic organs and regulatory pathways. For example, NAFLD increases risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular (CVD) and cardiac diseases, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although the primary liver pathology in NAFLD affects hepatic structure and function to cause morbidity and mortality from cirrhosis, liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, the majority of deaths among NAFLD patients are attributable to CVD. This narrative review focuses on the rapidly expanding body of clinical evidence that supports the concept of NAFLD as a multisystem disease. The review discusses the factors involved in the progression of liver disease in NAFLD and the factors linking NAFLD with other extra-hepatic chronic diseases, such as T2DM, CVD, cardiac diseases and CKD. The review will not discuss NAFLD treatments as these are discussed elsewhere in this issue of the Journal. For this review, PubMed was searched for articles using the keywords "non-alcoholic fatty liver disease" or "fatty liver" combined with "diabetes", "cardiovascular (or cardiac) disease", "cardiovascular mortality" or "chronic kidney disease" between 1990 and 2014. Articles published in languages other than English were excluded.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                chris.estes@centerforda.com
                Journal
                Hepatology
                Hepatology
                10.1002/(ISSN)1527-3350
                HEP
                Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.)
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                0270-9139
                1527-3350
                01 December 2017
                January 2018
                : 67
                : 1 ( doiID: 10.1002/hep.v67.1 )
                : 123-133
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Center for Disease Analysis Lafayette CO
                [ 2 ] Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine University of California San Diego CA
                [ 3 ] Department of Medicine Inova Fairfax Hospital Falls Church VA
                [ 4 ] Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine Richmond VA
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] ADDRESS CORRESPONDENCE AND REPRINT REQUESTS TO:

                Chris Estes, M.P.H., C.P.H.

                1120 W South Boulder Road #102

                Lafayette, CO 80026

                E‐mail: chris.estes@ 123456centerforda.com

                Tel: +1‐720‐890‐4848

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2658-6930
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9313-577X
                Article
                HEP29466
                10.1002/hep.29466
                5767767
                28802062
                be4df314-8299-4da3-b4bf-5502395493ea
                © 2017 The Authors. H epatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

                History
                : 30 December 2016
                : 24 July 2017
                : 08 August 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 5, Tables: 0, Pages: 11, Words: 5889
                Funding
                Funded by: Intercept Pharmaceuticals
                Funded by: Gilead Sciences
                Funded by: Boehringer Ingelheim
                Categories
                Original Article
                Original Articles
                Steatohepatitis/Metabolic Liver Disease
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                hep29466
                January 2018
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.2.8 mode:remove_FC converted:15.01.2018

                Gastroenterology & Hepatology
                Gastroenterology & Hepatology

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