Objective To analyze the change characteristics of schistosomiasis in Sichuan province from 2011 to 2019, and we provide reference for the control of schistosomiasis in the future.
Methods Annual reports of schistosomiasis control in Sichuan province from 2011 to 2019 were collected. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the changes of schistosomiasis. The chi-square test of independent samples was used to compare the rates between groups. ARIMA model was used to predict the related indexes of schistosomiasis control in Sichuan Province in the next three years.
Results By the end of 2019, 52 districts and counties in Sichuan province had reached the elimination standard for schistosomiasis. There were no new cases of acute and chronic schistosomiasis in Sichuan from 2011 to 2019. At present, there were 1 526 cases of advanced schistosomiasis in Sichuan. From 2016 to 2019, the occurrence rate of oncomelania snails in frame and the density of live oncomelania snails in the whole province showed a decreasing trend ( P<0.05).
Conclusion From 2011 to 2019, the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in Sichuan was stable, but there were potential risks. Prevention and control of oncomelania snails spread, advanced schistosomiasis rescue, and prevention and control of new cases remain the difficulties and priorities of future work.
摘要： 目的 分析2011—2019 年四川省血吸虫病疫情变化特征, 为今后血吸虫病防治工作提供参考。 方法 收集2011—2019 年四川省血吸虫病防治工作年报资料; 采用描述性统计方法分析血吸虫病疫情变化, 使用独立样本的 χ2检验进行组间率的比较, 使用Arima模型对四川省未来3年的血防相关指标进行预测。 结果 截至2019年底四川省52个区县达到血吸虫病除标准, 2011—2019年四川省无新发急性血吸虫病和慢性血吸虫病病例, 目前四川省现存1 526例晚血病人, 2016—2019年全省有螺框出现率和活螺密度均呈下降趋势 ( P<0.05) 。 结论 2011—2019年四川省血吸虫病疫情稳定, 但存在钉螺面积扩散、疫情反复等潜在风险, 控制钉螺扩散、晚血救助和预防控制新发病例仍是未来工作的难点和重点。