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      PhenoForecaster: A software package for the prediction of flowering phenology

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          Abstract

          Premise of the Study

          Predicting the flowering times of angiosperm taxa is a goal of mounting importance in the face of future climate change, with applications not only in plant biology and ecology, but also horticulture, agriculture, and invasive species management. To date, no tool is available to facilitate predictions of flowering phenology using multivariate phenoclimatic models. Such a tool is needed by researchers and other stakeholders who need to predict phenological activity, but are unfamiliar with phenoclimate modeling techniques. PhenoForecaster allows users of any background to conduct species‐specific phenological predictions using an intuitive graphical interface and provides an estimate of each prediction's accuracy.

          Methods and Results

          Elastic net regression techniques were used to develop species‐specific models capable of predicting the flowering dates of 2320 angiosperm species.

          Conclusions

          PhenoForecaster is the first stand‐alone package to make phenological modeling directly accessible to users without the need for in‐depth phenological observations.

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          Most cited references13

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          Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers.

          The timing of life history traits is central to lifetime fitness and nowhere is this more evident or well studied as in the phenology of flowering in governing plant reproductive success. Recent changes in the timing of environmental events attributable to climate change, such as the date of snowmelt at high altitudes, which initiates the growing season, have had important repercussions for some common perennial herbaceous wildflower species. The phenology of flowering at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (Colorado, USA) is strongly influenced by date of snowmelt, which makes this site ideal for examining phenological responses to climate change. Flower buds of Delphinium barbeyi, Erigeron speciosus, and Helianthella quinquenervis are sensitive to frost, and the earlier beginning of the growing season in recent years has exposed them to more frequent mid-June frost kills. From 1992 to 1998, on average 36.1% of Helianthella buds were frosted, but for 1999-2006 the mean is 73.9%; in only one year since 1998 have plants escaped all frost damage. For all three of these perennial species, there is a significant relationship between the date of snowmelt and the abundance of flowering that summer. Greater snowpack results in later snowmelt, later beginning of the growing season, and less frost mortality of buds. Microhabitat differences in snow accumulation, snowmelt patterns, and cold air drainage during frost events can be significant; an elevation difference of only 12 m between two plots resulted in a temperature difference of almost 2 degrees C in 2006 and a difference of 37% in frost damage to buds. The loss of flowers and therefore seeds can reduce recruitment in these plant populations, and affect pollinators, herbivores, and seed predators that previously relied on them. Other plant species in this environment are similarly susceptible to frost damage so the negative effects for recruitment and for consumers dependent on flowers and seeds could be widespread. These findings point out the paradox of increased frost damage in the face of global warming, provide important insights into the adaptive significance of phenology, and have general implications for flowering plants throughout the region and anywhere climate change is having similar impacts.
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            Competition for Hummingbird Pollination and Sequential Flowering in Two Colorado Wildflowers

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              Herbarium specimens demonstrate earlier flowering times in response to warming in Boston.

              Museum specimens collected in the past may be a valuable source of information on the response of species to climate change. This idea was tested by comparing the flowering times during the year 2003 of 229 living plants growing at the Arnold Arboretum in Boston, Massachusetts, USA, with 372 records of flowering times from 1885 to 2002 using herbarium specimens of the same individual plants. During this period, Boston experienced a 1.5°C increase in mean annual temperature. Flowering times became progressively earlier; plants flowered 8 d earlier from 1980 to 2002 than they did from 1900 to 1920. Most of this shift toward earlier flowering times is explained by the influence of temperature, especially temperatures in the months of February, March, April, and May, on flowering time. Plants with a long flowering duration appear to be as useful for detecting responses to changing temperatures as plants with a short flowering duration. Additional studies using herbarium specimens to detect responses to climate change could examine specimens from specific, intensively collected localities, such as mountain peaks, islands, and unique habitats.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                isaac_park@ucsb.edu
                Journal
                Appl Plant Sci
                Appl Plant Sci
                10.1002/(ISSN)2168-0450
                APS3
                Applications in Plant Sciences
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2168-0450
                12 March 2019
                March 2019
                : 7
                : 3 ( doiID: 10.1002/aps3.2019.7.issue-3 )
                : e01230
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology University of California–Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California 93106 USA
                [ 2 ] Department of Computer Science University of California–Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California 93106 USA
                Author notes
                [*] [* ]Author for correspondence: isaac_park@ 123456ucsb.edu
                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5539-1641
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4952-6949
                https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8080-388X
                Article
                APS31230
                10.1002/aps3.1230
                6426163
                bef54bd0-b900-49da-a1db-34a9a6305860
                © 2019 Park et al. Applications in Plant Sciences is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Botanical Society of America

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                History
                : 26 November 2018
                : 29 January 2019
                Page count
                Figures: 2, Tables: 0, Pages: 6, Words: 4631
                Funding
                Funded by: National Science Foundation
                Award ID: DEB‐1556768
                Categories
                Software Note
                Software Notes
                Invited Special Article
                For the Special Issue: Emerging Frontiers in Phenological Research
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                aps31230
                March 2019
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.6.1 mode:remove_FC converted:20.03.2019

                bloom timing,elastic net regularization,flowering,herbarium specimens,phenoclimate models,phenological models,phenology

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