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      Role of Ascertainment Bias in Determining Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19

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          Abstract

          Case fatality rate (CFR) is used to calculate mortality burden of COVID-19 under different scenarios, thus informing risk-benefit balance of interventions both pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical. However, observed CFR is driven by testing: as more low-risk cases are identified, observed CFR will decline. This report quantifies test bias by modeling observed CFR as log-log-linear function of test density (tests per population) in 163 countries. CFR declined almost 20% (e.g. from 5% to 4%) for each doubling of test density ( p < 0.0001); this association did not vary by continent (interaction p > 0.10) although at any given test density CFR was higher in Europe or North America than in Asia or Africa. This effect of test density on observed CFR is adequate to hide all but the largest true differences in case survivorship. Published estimates of CFR should specify test density, and comparisons should correct for it such as by applying the provided model.

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          Outcomes of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Patients Recently Recovered From Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

          Question What are the cardiovascular effects in unselected patients with recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Findings In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis. Meaning These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19. This cohort study evaluates the presence of myocardial injury in unselected patients recently recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Importance Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. Case reports of hospitalized patients suggest that COVID-19 prominently affects the cardiovascular system, but the overall impact remains unknown. Objective To evaluate the presence of myocardial injury in unselected patients recently recovered from COVID-19 illness. Design, Setting, and Participants In this prospective observational cohort study, 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 illness were identified from the University Hospital Frankfurt COVID-19 Registry between April and June 2020. Exposure Recent recovery from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, as determined by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction on swab test of the upper respiratory tract. Main Outcomes and Measures Demographic characteristics, cardiac blood markers, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging were obtained. Comparisons were made with age-matched and sex-matched control groups of healthy volunteers (n = 50) and risk factor–matched patients (n = 57). Results Of the 100 included patients, 53 (53%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 49 (14) years. The median (IQR) time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and CMR was 71 (64-92) days. Of the 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19, 67 (67%) recovered at home, while 33 (33%) required hospitalization. At the time of CMR, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) was detectable (greater than 3 pg/mL) in 71 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (71%) and significantly elevated (greater than 13.9 pg/mL) in 5 patients (5%). Compared with healthy controls and risk factor–matched controls, patients recently recovered from COVID-19 had lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher left ventricle volumes, and raised native T1 and T2. A total of 78 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (78%) had abnormal CMR findings, including raised myocardial native T1 (n = 73), raised myocardial native T2 (n = 60), myocardial late gadolinium enhancement (n = 32), or pericardial enhancement (n = 22). There was a small but significant difference between patients who recovered at home vs in the hospital for native T1 mapping (median [IQR], 1119 [1092-1150] ms vs 1141 [1121-1175] ms; P  = .008) and hsTnT (4.2 [3.0-5.9] pg/dL vs 6.3 [3.4-7.9] pg/dL; P  = .002) but not for native T2 mapping. None of these measures were correlated with time from COVID-19 diagnosis (native T1: r  = 0.07; P  = .47; native T2: r  = 0.14; P  = .15; hsTnT: r  = −0.07; P  = .50). High-sensitivity troponin T was significantly correlated with native T1 mapping ( r  = 0.33; P  < .001) and native T2 mapping ( r  = 0.18; P  = .01). Endomyocardial biopsy in patients with severe findings revealed active lymphocytic inflammation. Native T1 and T2 were the measures with the best discriminatory ability to detect COVID-19–related myocardial pathology. Conclusions and Relevance In this study of a cohort of German patients recently recovered from COVID-19 infection, CMR revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis. These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.
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            Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection

            Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly throughout the world since the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were observed in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It has been suspected that infected persons who remain asymptomatic play a significant role in the ongoing pandemic, but their relative number and effect have been uncertain. The authors sought to review and synthesize the available evidence on asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Asymptomatic persons seem to account for approximately 40% to 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections, and they can transmit the virus to others for an extended period, perhaps longer than 14 days. Asymptomatic infection may be associated with subclinical lung abnormalities, as detected by computed tomography. Because of the high risk for silent spread by asymptomatic persons, it is imperative that testing programs include those without symptoms. To supplement conventional diagnostic testing, which is constrained by capacity, cost, and its one-off nature, innovative tactics for public health surveillance, such as crowdsourcing digital wearable data and monitoring sewage sludge, might be helpful.
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              Change in the Incidence of Stillbirth and Preterm Delivery During the COVID-19 Pandemic

              This study compares pregnancy outcomes, including rates of stillbirth (fetal death ≥24 weeks’ gestation), preterm and cesarean delivery, and neonatal unit admission in the months preceding vs during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic at a London university hospital.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                J Epidemiol Glob Health
                J Epidemiol Glob Health
                JEGH
                Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
                Atlantis Press
                2210-6006
                2210-6014
                June 2021
                : 11
                : 2
                : 143-145
                Affiliations
                Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, St. George’s University School of Medicine, True Blue, Grenada, West Indies
                Author notes
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1154-1158
                Article
                JEGH-11-2-143
                10.2991/jegh.k.210401.001
                8242115
                33876593
                c1022d52-0a59-4dff-9260-2a179847d3ae
                © 2021 The Author. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.

                This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC 4.0 license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

                History
                : 22 September 2020
                : 17 March 2021
                Categories
                Perspective
                Perspective

                epidemiology,health policy,ascertainment bias,global health,bias,epidemiologic methods,africa,asia,europe,north america,south america,virus,covid-19,sars-cov-2,log-log linear regression,log slope

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