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      Simplified climate modelling to size economic boundaries

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          Abstract

          Pencil-and-paper climate modelling is extracted from the comprehensive previous research on the inherently complex natural processes. A major goal is to mediate between general scientific knowledge and the wide-spread scepticism by identifying the driving forces, seeking simple descriptions, uncovering reproducibility, and thus contributing to transparency. The results of the shortcut model are in outstanding agreement with earlier measurement data and simulation studies. Two observations are fundamentally novel requiring scrutinization by the natural sciences community: (1) near-proportionality of atmospheric infrared absorption to particle densities and (2), temperature impact from human energy consumption. Independently, the presented framework allows for straightforward climate projections and risk assessment. As result, future economic growth is demanded to zero, even in a renewables (Green Growth) world.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          ScienceOpen Preprints
          ScienceOpen
          18 September 2020
          Affiliations
          [1 ] BHU Research
          Article
          10.14293/S2199-1006.1.SOR-.PPYDLMQ.v2

          This work has been published open access under Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0 , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Conditions, terms of use and publishing policy can be found at www.scienceopen.com .

          Funding
          No funding privided. No grant provided.

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