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      Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Sweden: An intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy

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          Abstract

          Socioeconomic, ethnic and gender disparities in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) risk are well established but no studies have applied multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) within an intersectional framework to study this outcome. We study individuals at the first level of analysis and combinations of multiple social and demographic categorizations (i.e., intersectional strata) at the second level of analysis. Here we used MAIHDA to assess to what extent individual differences in the propensity of developing COPD are at the intersectional strata level. We also used MAIHDA to determine the degree of similarity in COPD incidence of individuals in the same intersectional stratum. This leads to an improved understanding of risk heterogeneity and of the social dynamics driving socioeconomic and demographic disparities in COPD incidence. Using data from 2,445,501 residents in Sweden aged 45–65, we constructed 96 intersectional strata combining categories of age, gender, income, education, civil- and migration status. The incidences of COPD ranged from 0.02% for young, native males with high income and high education who cohabited to 0.98% for older native females with low income and low education who lived alone. We calculated the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) that informs on the discriminatory accuracy of the categorizations. In a model that conflated additive and interaction effects, the ICC was good (20.0%). In contrast, in a model that measured only interaction effects, the ICC was poor (1.1%) suggesting that most of the observed differences in COPD incidence across strata are due to the main effects of the categories used to construct the intersectional matrix while only a minor share of the differences are attributable to intersectional interactions. We found conclusive interaction effects. The intersectional MAIHDA approach offers improved information to guide public health policies in COPD prevention, and such policies should adopt an intersectional perspective.

          Highlights

          • We use multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy.

          • There is a clear difference in COPD incidence between intersectional strata.

          • Intersectionality improves mapping of socioeconomic differences in COPD incidence.

          • Preventive measures should be based on intersectional rather than classic analyses.

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          Most cited references42

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          Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990–2020: Global Burden of Disease Study

          The Lancet, 349(9064), 1498-1504
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            Limitations of the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening marker.

            M. S. Pepe (2004)
            A marker strongly associated with outcome (or disease) is often assumed to be effective for classifying persons according to their current or future outcome. However, for this assumption to be true, the associated odds ratio must be of a magnitude rarely seen in epidemiologic studies. In this paper, an illustration of the relation between odds ratios and receiver operating characteristic curves shows, for example, that a marker with an odds ratio of as high as 3 is in fact a very poor classification tool. If a marker identifies 10% of controls as positive (false positives) and has an odds ratio of 3, then it will correctly identify only 25% of cases as positive (true positives). The authors illustrate that a single measure of association such as an odds ratio does not meaningfully describe a marker's ability to classify subjects. Appropriate statistical methods for assessing and reporting the classification power of a marker are described. In addition, the serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated.
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              Epidemiology and the web of causation: has anyone seen the spider?

              N Krieger (1994)
              'Multiple causation' is the canon of contemporary epidemiology, and its metaphor and model is the 'web of causation.' First articulated in a 1960 U.S. epidemiology textbook, the 'web' remains a widely accepted but poorly elaborated model, reflecting in part the contemporary stress on epidemiologic methods over epidemiologic theories of disease causation. This essay discusses the origins, features, and problems of the 'web,' including its hidden reliance upon the framework of biomedical individualism to guide the choice of factors incorporated in the 'web.' Posing the question of the whereabouts of the putative 'spider,' the author examines several contemporary approaches to epidemiologic theory, including those which stress biological evolution and adaptation and those which emphasize the social production of disease. To better integrate biologic and social understandings of current and changing population patterns of health and disease, the essay proposes an ecosocial framework for developing epidemiologic theory. Features of this alternative approach are discussed, a preliminary image is offered, and debate is encouraged.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                SSM Popul Health
                SSM Popul Health
                SSM - Population Health
                Elsevier
                2352-8273
                20 March 2018
                April 2018
                20 March 2018
                : 4
                : 334-346
                Affiliations
                [a ]Unit for Social Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Sweden
                [b ]Centre for Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol, UK
                [c ]Center for Primary Health Research, Region Skåne, Malmö, Sweden
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Unit for Social Epidemiology, CRC, Jan Waldenströms gata, 35, S-205 02, Malmö, Sweden. sten.axelsson_fisk@ 123456med.lu.se
                Article
                S2352-8273(17)30203-3
                10.1016/j.ssmph.2018.03.005
                5976844
                29854918
                c1ac3987-205f-46cb-a8f1-b4165fffc61e
                © 2018 The Authors

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

                History
                : 13 October 2017
                : 9 March 2018
                : 12 March 2018
                Categories
                Article

                maihda, multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy,ci, credible interval,da, discriminatory accuracy,icc, intra class correlation,intersectionality,incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,multilevel analysis,individual heterogeneity,equity in health,socioeconomic determinants of health,respiratory epidemiology

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