Accessing adaptation: Multiple stressors on livelihoods in the Bolivian highlands under a changing climate

All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.

Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

The literature on the response of insect species to the changing environments experienced along altitudinal gradients is diverse and widely dispersed. There is a growing awareness that such responses may serve as analogues for climate warming effects occurring at a particular fixed altitude or latitude over time. This review seeks, therefore, to synthesise information on the responses of insects and allied groups to increasing altitude and provide a platform for future research. It focuses on those functional aspects of insect biology that show positive or negative reaction to altitudinal changes but avoids emphasising adaptation to high altitude per se. Reactions can be direct, with insect characteristics or performance responding to changing environmental parameters, or they can be indirect and mediated through the insect's interaction with other organisms. These organisms include the host plant in the case of herbivorous insects, and also competitor species, specific parasitoids, predators and pathogens. The manner in which these various factors individually and collectively influence the morphology, behaviour, ecophysiology, growth and development, survival, reproduction, and spatial distribution of insect species is considered in detail. Resultant patterns in the abundance of individual species populations and of community species richness are examined. Attempts are made throughout to provide mechanistic explanations of trends and to place each topic, where appropriate, into the broader theoretical context by appropriate reference to key literature. The paper concludes by considering how montane insect species will respond to climate warming.